Thursday, June 7, 2018

California 2018 Primary: Wave Good-Bye to the Democratic Party Blue Wave (House Races)

The California Democratic Party put so much time and effort to generate a blue wave in the Golden State.

The the latest results from the June 5th, 2018 primary suggest that instead of a wave, maybe a ripple was generated. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hoped to target seven seats in California to win the majority.

Here are the seats:

1. CD-10, Jeff Denham
2. CD-21, David Valadao
3. CD-25, Steve Knight
4. CD-39, Ed Royce
5. CD-45, Mimi Walters
6. CD-48, Dana Rohrabacher
7. CD-49, Darrell Issa

Oh, and for added measure, let's add their big plans to take on Devin Nunes in CD-22 and Duncan Hunter Jr. in CD-50, just for added measure.

Of course, the fawning, left-wing media is all aglow about the Democrats' chances.

But let's really assess the Democratic strategy overall and the "wins" they have chalked up going into the November 2018 general  election.

1. The National Democratic Party is targeting those seats in California because Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump in those contests. The political logic behind those decisions is flawed, in my opinion, because ticket-splitting is very common among California and American voters, i.e. voters will often vote for for a Republican Congressional candidate (or incumbent) while voting for a Democratic Presidential candidate, or vice versa.

Bob Huff, who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in CD-39, pointed this idea out during his visit to the North Orange County Republican Club in Fullerton two weeks ago. I agreed with him, and I think his take on the matter was quite accurate.

2. The fact that Democratic operatives in California targeted Devin Nunes and Duncan Hunter proves how out of touch, completely delusional they have become.

Here are the latest numbers from the California Secretary of State for those two incumbents:

Devin Nunes:

Nunes earned a higher perfecntage of the vote than all his other challengers combined.

Duncan Hunter Jr.:

Hunter faced opposition from other Republicans, and some of these challenges from the right have emerged because of investigation into Hunter's alleged campaign finance misuses.

Yet despite all of that, the Republican tally exceeds the Democratic tally, and Hunter will have no problems getting re-elected, even if he gets indicted, convicted, disgraced, or anything else. Another Republican could win the seat easily in a special election if Hunter has to step down. I doubt any of this will happen, however.

The final summary on this item? The California and National Democratic Parties were not just idealistic in their aims, but delusional to the degree of mental illness. They actually thought that Nunes' and Hunter's seats could be in play. And they are not.

3. As much as I do not care for Denham and Valadao's aggressive pushes for amnesty, they are the better of the Democratic contenders. The liberals running in these seats will turn into crappier, uglier, more progressive versions of Jim Costa  in CD-16. The fact is that for the last three cycles, Democrats have tried to find the best candidates to throw out Denham and Valadao, but nothing has stuck. The two candidates are too well-known, tied to the region to face any substantive opposition. Big names like Dolores Huerta, for example, have stood behind Democratic contenders to promote them, but it just hasn't worked. These two incumbents will cruise to re-election because as farmers tied to their land just like many of their constituents, they know the issues all too well and are willing to fight the hardest for water, for land, for less regulation--and yes, for cheaper labor.

Hello, Blue Wave!

4. The four seats in Orange County were the prime picks for Democratic pick-ups. So much so, that the Indivisible groups and Open Border advocates were routinely harassing local Congressional representatives. It doesn't look like their chances are going to measure up to anything strong or "wave-like" going into November.

Mimi Walters' office deal with these left-wing protesters repeatedly, and a few times I showed up to counterprotest along with constituents in the district who want their rights respected and their property protected.

There were so many Democrats running in these districts, that Democratic leaders feared that they would split the vote inexorably and allow two Republicans to sneak into the Top Two. I wanted that "Miller Effect" to occur, but that was not to be.

And yet ... Democratic turnout was not strong, and the final numbers for those districts suggest that the two incumbents will do very well, and the fight for the two open seats will be harder than expected for the Democratic Party.

Let's start with CD-45, Mimi Walters' seat:

Walters did better than all the other candidates, combined, especially David Min, who was the most active progressive targeting this seat. He was particularly rude to me and a constituent named Kenny Straw--and now David Min is gone!

Ha Ha! Cousin Mimi will have no problem holding onto her house seat in November.

What about Dana Rohrabacher? He was facing intense challenges from the left AND from the right, including former OCGOP Chairman Scott Baugh.

What happened on Primary Day?

The total tally for Republican candidates and Democratic candidates breaks down like this:

GOP total 58,080
Dem total: 50,266

GOP turnout was higher, but it's getting pretty close. Rohrbacher is facing a fight this time. Hopefully, however, the big money will come in to make sure that rides whatever blue wavelet comes through Surf City.

Rohrabacher is one of the most vocal opponents to illegal immigration, so no one should be surprised that Democrats are throwing everything they have at him to get him out office.

This race will probably be the closest of his career, but he will win.

Go Dana!

Now what about the open seats?

CD-39, Ed Royce's seat, is open since Royce opted not to run again. He should have thrown his hat in the ring, since he exceeded his Democratic contender by double digits in 2016.

The campaign for the seat was a full-on free for all:

Here's the breakdown on the final voter tally:

GOP total: 44, 037
Dem total: 37,873

This turnout was lower than the turnout in CD-48, for starters, which is remarkable in itself, since an open seat usually generates more attention if not at least more voters.

The fact remains that more Republicans than Democrats voted in the primary.  Young Kim is the top vote-getter, followed by Gil Cisneros.

That's bad news for the Democrats, because one of Gil's former volunteers charged him with sexual harassment. Uh-Oh! Kim would be wise to hammer Cisneros for his #MeToo perversities. One report also suggests that Cisneros is a closet Republican! OUCH! What will Democrats do come November in CD-39?

Check out what the former staffer shared about Gil:

I predict that because of Royce's endorsement and prior service in his office, followed by the growing Asian-American voting contingent in the district, Young Kim will be the next representative. The rancor within the Democratic Party is too great for Bernie-crat progressives to look past the #MeToo shame and the Big Money spent by Cisneros to buy the nomination.

Now for the most likely target for the Democrats: CD-49.

How did that turn out?

Here's the vote breakdown:

GOP total: 54,136

Dem total: 56,488

Oceanside, we have a problem.

Yikes! Democrats outperformed Republicans in this district. I am a little shocked, especially since South Orange County is one of the most conservative sections of California and Orange County. North San Diego County has a lot of military brass, too. Why would the district be shifting like this?

Congressman Darrell Issa was losing support steadily over the last four years, that's true. He had angered Republicans as well as Democrats, which best explains why he was struggling to stay in office. Democrats are really fired up about this race, and it would be quite a notch in their belt to take the seat which had belonged to the former House Oversight Committee Chairman.

The Republican endorsed by both county parties and House Leadership, Diane Harkey, was the top vote-getter. Whom will she challenge going into the general election? While the California Secretary of State has listed the election as a "close contest", Mike Levin is the next highest vote-getter, and currently he is 2,000 votes ahead of Sara Jacobs, another Democrat.

Diane Harkey has the support from all the major conservative players, and to her credit she shoved down Rocky Chavez, a full-on RINO who had backstabbed every conservative and every major party leader in the region. So glad that he is gone.

But can Harkey make up the small difference and win? This contest will be the most bitter, expensive campaign in the state. Just you watch. I would have to say 50/50 for now that it will stay in GOP hands, but Republicans cannot rest or take anything for granted.

Summary for Orange County

The worse case scenario, we will lose one house seat: CD-49. But if that's the best that the Democrats can get, it will hardly measure up to a blue wave of any kind.

5. Democrats are also targeted CD-25, Steve Knight's seat.

How did he do on primary day?

Steve Knight, the only Republican on the ballot, earned more than 50% of the vote.

He will win re-election, especially because his likely challenger, Katie Hill, is a full-on progressive who was caught on camera supporting single-payer healthcare, but then will work hard to downplay that progressive image to the conservative voters of the 25th Congressional district. Knight was first elected in 2014, running against another Republican in the Top Two. Despite some of the changing demographics in the district, Knight is a very popular representative with the basic voting public. His tenure in the state senate is still well-known, and despite some of his dithering on immigration issues, he will be a solid lock for re-election going into November.

Final Reflection

The Democratic wave crashed in California in 2018, just as Republican waves across the country had crashed in this state during past elections cycles. Finally, Republicans are looking strong going into the November General Elections.

Last of all, let's not forget that we have a number of qualified contenders at the top of the ticket, including John Cox (yes, I wrote that), and Steve Bailey for Attorney General. At all costs, let's get rid of Xavier Becerra. We must have a law enforcement who respects the rule of law, as opposed to a lawless ideologue pushing a destructive, abusive agenda.

People, the Blue Wave was media hype at its worst, a flabby myth flailing away.

Here comes the Red Wave, people, and even here in California it will start to crest for once.

1 comment:

  1. Pete Aguilar in CD31 is lagging below 50 percent since Sean Flynn is neck-to-neck with Aguilar which is a unexpected close race.