Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Trump Beat Romney in Deep-Blue California Cities: How?

The Sacramento Bee did their exhaustive study on how well Donald Trump did in all California cities compared to Mitt Romney in 2012.

Trump did worse than Romney in a larger number of otherswise strongly Republican areas.

But in the most unlikely cities, Trump actually exceeded Romney.

Here's the metric to explain how the chart was laid out:

Now check out the cities where Trump exceeded Romney:

Let's start with the first city of note, in part because I had attended a town hall in that city last weekend:


Inglewood California is a decent microcosm of the political cancer that is eating out California. The city was a wellspring of growth and development. Barry Goldwater actually won Inglewood, even though he lost the rest of the state and 46 others.

Then came the busing, the racially-charged policies of welfarism and government dependence. Crime became the norm, and “white flight” undermined the communities. A large phalanx of the Democracy began running this plantation—although Republican Gordon Hahn, uncle of Aunt Janice and former LA Mayor James Hahn—represented Inglewood in the state assembly in the early 1960s.

Democrats are the norm, and Republicans just stay quiet, if there are any. 

Yet notice that in Inglewood, Trmp did better, even though the Republican registration is abysmally low. Granted we are looking at Republican registration dipping below 10%.

But notice that the share of the vote is signficantly larger, especially for Compton. It's as though every single Republican decided to step out and vote for Trump.

Even in Oakland, Trump did slightly better.


Here are few reasons, starting with the most likely, and the moving to more speculative reasons:

1. These three cities are well-known black urban areas. The one issue which resonated with many Democratic voters was immigration. The problems with illegal immigration, the undercutting of wages and jobs, and the high crimes rates in urban areas all impact black communities disproportionately.

2. Since these liberal cities are progressive bastions pushing the Democratic Party to the left, Bernie voters in larger numbers might have voted for Trump out of pure rebellion against the Democratic nominee Crooked Hillary Clinton. A progressive Democratic voter in Colorado did the same thing, and she received a featured editorial in Politico.

3. The high crime rates, unemployment, and moral degredation have hit the community so hard, that slowly but surely they are walking off the Democratic Plantation and willing to try a Republican Presidential candidate. After all, Trump told disenfranchised voters "What do you have to lose?"

If Republicans want to win big in blue cities, they need to pay attention to the above issues--and not hold back!

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