Monday, February 1, 2016

Election 2016: Predictions for Iowa

The Iowa caucuses are in full swing, in spite of wind, hail, snow, and sleet.

Here are my predictions on how the final tally will turn out:


1. Ted Cruz:  30%
2. Donald Trump 28 %
3. Marco Rubio 20%
4. Ben Carson 12 %


1. Bernie Sanders: 45%
2. Hillary Clinton: 40%
3. O'Malley 5%
5. Someone else 10%

Ted Cruz has invested a lot of resources not just into social media, but also in a stellar ground game.

Ted Cruz v. Donald Trump?
Donald Trump is relying on personality, media, and polling. I doubt that kind of ground game is going  to work. Sarah Palin's endorsement does not ensure any kind of victory.

Marco Rubio has invested heavily in the state, and is not looking for big wins but just to show better than the slew of other candidates.

As for the Democrats, Weekend at Bernie Sanders has been surging, and will come out on top. Clinton does not come off as real or reliable.

O'Malley is. . .well, just look at who is governor now in Maryland: Republican Larry Hogan!

Now, the next questions: Who is dropping out after Iowa?

O'Malley is toast. Bye!

Huckabee, as he promised to. He does not have any kind of game in place for South Carolina, and he won't win or woo crowds in New Hampshire.

Santorum is gone. He had great policy ideas, but his also-ran run in 2012 would never have translated into anything serious or meaningful this time around.

Cruz v. Rubio?
After New Hampshire?

Kasich is gone. He has been a barely above asterisk candidate to begin with, and after New Hampshire, where Trump will win first place, followed by Rubio or Rand Paul. Cruz might actually place second.

Christie may linger if he polls in Second or third place. Jeb too.

After South Carolina?

Ben Carson will drop out. His staff has been migrating away from him to Cruz or Donald Trump's camp. Rand Paul will probably go back to his US Senate race in Kentucky, win reelection, and bring conservative leadership back to the US Senate.

After Florida?

Jeb will spend millions to hold onto that state. I see Trump and Rubio dancing for first place, and Jeb a distant fourth.
Trump v. Rubio?

This Presidential race will be a fight between three candidates: Cruz, Trump, and Rubio.

Christie will drop out after Florida.

What do you think? Email me at or comment below.

No comments:

Post a Comment