She has been one of the top targets for ouster--in California--ever since the 2012 election..
Even in 2016, Republicans in Ventura County are not giving up.
First it was Strickland, assemblyman, state senator, candidate for statewide office, and he also ran for Congress twice.
Then Jeff Gorrell, another assemblyman in the in the region, ran but didn't make it. Critics cited his lack of engagement with key communities. No outreach, and too moderate on some issues, Gorrell should have done well with a more Republican-friendly turnout in 2014.
Despite these failures, the registration suggests, and the layout indicates with some consistency, that a Republican can win that district back. The district has a +4 registration advantage, but for statewide and national elections, the district outscome has swung left and right.
Another Republican can take back Ventura.
So far, with the conflict and confusion at the top of the Democratic ticket, and the growing unpopularity of Hillary Clinton, Rafael Dagnasses, the only Republican--and challenger for the seat-- could upset the Brownley machine.
According to three recent eblasts from her fundraising firm, she isn't raising the campaign funds she expected.
From May 20th:
Let me be clear -- I will never sit quietly while ultra-conservative Republicans force their conservative agenda on all of America.
But that’s why Ryan wants me gone. He wants to replace me with a yes-man who would be one more vote to push through his bigoted agenda.
Wow! She's already full of hate, and on the attack.
I’m not going to let that happen. I’m going to continue to be the strong, Democratic representative Ventura County deserves. If you’re with me, will you please chip in $5 (or more if you can) today to help me fight back?
Thanks for standing with me on this,
She sent out a previous eblast fearing her place, since she claimed to be the #1 Target for Republicans.
Then she sent out this email (May 21, 2016):
Friends, we’ve got some bad news to share.
This week, we had a major fundraising deadline -- and despite all our appeals, we fell short.
When is the last time anyone in California ever read about a Democratic Congressional candidate--and an incumbent--who was not hauling in the major campaign cash?
We have only 18 days to turn things around before the California Primary Elections. Our next budget deadline is Sunday at 11:59pm. And we need to make sure we don’t fall short again.
They didn't make that deadline, either.
Please, Julia is counting on you. Can you rush a donation immediately so we hit our budget deadline this time?
Look, Julia is the most vulnerable woman in California’s delegation. And with California voters heading to the polls SO soon, we need you now more than ever to keep Julia safe.
Now she's the most vulnerable woman in the California delegation. Well.
Julia fights for us every day. And now it’s our turn to fight for her.
How exactly is she fighting for average working Americans?
Then came this eblast, with the subjectl line "Start to a very bad week."
If you’re reading this email right now, we need your help.
Last week, we fell short on a PUBLIC fundraising deadline (trust us, Paul Ryan noticed).
Believe me, Julia--so did we, We noticed very clearly.
Honestly, that put us in a really bad spot. And with the California primary elections just over 2 weeks away, we’re starting to panic.
If Rafael shows a strong close finish for the primary, Brownley will be in big trouble.
We can get back on track if we hit our budget goal tonight. But right now, we still have $656 to go.
Look, if we fall short again, it’s going to be the start to a very bad week.
It’s up to you turn the tide. Are you in?
She sent this email out at 5:11am in the morning. Really stressed, Julia?
I’m emailing you so early because this absolutely cannot wait until later.
Unless we start turning things around TODAY, our Democratic campaign is going to fall embarrassingly short of our May fundraising goal.
And right after we fell short of our last deadline, another embarrassment would be too much to bear.
I need your help right now -- chip in what you can:
Check out this eblast for this evening (May 27th 2016, at 6:11pm to be precise)
Friends, we’re on the brink of failure.
Our May fundraising deadline is only 4 days away, and right now we need to raise another $5017.
Wait, I though she need $685. Now she needs ten times that amount?!
And after we failed to hit a critical goal earlier this month, failing again would be an absolute disaster for Julia’s Democratic campaign.
But here’s the good news: If you donate to our Democratic campaign before Tuesday, your gift will be MATCHED!
No tricks. No gimmicks.
Will you chip in right now?
ALL GIFTS MATCHED
This is our chance to make a ROARING comeback right before California’s elections.
And since Julia is the most vulnerable Congresswoman in California, we can’t afford to fail another time.
So please, chip in what you can and make a difference TODAY.
There's a reason why she's the Number One Target--she's not bringing in the money, probably because she's not demonstrating real service or leadership.
Brownley is going down-ley!