Election 2018 has come and gone. I had predicted that the Republicans
would keep Congress. We lost the House, although Fox News’ perverse decision to
call the House election so quickly rankled many, including me. How could they
have possibly determined that West Coast targeted House seats would fall into
the Democratic camp, when the polls had not even closed?
At least we kept the US Senate. I had hoped for a much wider margin of
victory, but that didn’t happen either. Montanans voted for Tester—again! What
is it with these Big Sky State voters? At least Paul Gianforte won re-election,
although the margin was a little too close.
The Republican Party did manage to defy history. Remember that in 2010,
a similar year to compare with 2018, Republicans gained six seats, adding the
stunning special election upset in Massachusetts with Scott Brown of Wrentham.
The Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives remains a
stunner. I had really expected that we would stave off hard losses, aside from
a handful of states which have gotten bluer as conservative voters flee to
red-state climes. California is the epicenter for this internal mass migration,
sure, but even then I thought that the extra attention from the national party
would make up the difference.
And yet so many House seats went blue this time, and in Orange County,
California, the reddest county in California and even the country. Congressman Dana
Rohrabacher, a long-standing conservative stalwart (who also represented me in
Congress in the late 1980s) was swept out by a thin margin, along with House GOP
Conference Chair Mimi Walters, Steve Knight, and Jeff Denham (in the Central
Valley). If the incoming provisional ballots foretell anything, it looks like
David Valadao is toast, too. Lord have mercy, Republicans were already an
endangered species. Now we are on the “Where’s Waldo?” List.
Oh brother, what happened?
First, before going into the bad news, and there’s plenty, let’s
consider that the final tally stands at 234 Democrats to 201 Republicans.
Remember back to 2010, and Democrats lost all of their House seat gains from
2006 and 2008 in one fell sweep. The Democratic margin of victory was not as
strong, even though they spent multi-millions in targeted races. $30 million
flooded Orange County airwaves. The media market covers Southern California,
from Ventura to Orange County, all the way to the Inland Empire.
Let’s not neglect that even where US Senate candidates lost, their
margins were closer than expected. In Michigan, Debbie Stabenow had to debate
her opponent, and she still won by 52%. Ohio’s Sherrod Brown barely held on,
too. Republicans are making gains in these swing states. And let’s not forget
Florida. US Senator Scott along with Governor Ron DeSantis signal more
Trump-like victories down the road. All told, Republicans held onto key
governorships: Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa, all in preparation for 2020,
including GOP trifectas, too! Even if the federal delegations took a hit, the
state delegations remain strong. In Wisconsin, Governor Walker lost, but the
legislature remains in Republican hands.
Big money flipped seats, but a number of close-margin Congressional victories in red states (South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah) spell trouble for Democrats in 2020. Nancy Pelosi is unpopular, and the bare minimum of Democrats have voiced opposition to stave off her coronation next year.
Now for the reality check: 2018 was a failure for the Republicans at
the popular level, and they need to assess, regroup, and regain.
1.
The Republican National Committee threw a lot of
investment into Orange County, CA. Why weren’t they paying closer attention sooner?
The House reps had won by comfortable margins in 2014 and 2016. Congressman
Darrell Issa didn’t even campaign in 2014. However, in the 2016 June primary the
former House Committee Oversight Chairman held a thin 51% margin. Not good. The
alarm bells should have been going off not just for that election cycle, but
for two years afterwards. If Orange County was trending blue—and so
quickly—where were the forces to stave it off?
2.
Speaking of forces: where is the voter
registration? In California, it’s next to non-existent, and it shows, with
Decline-To-State voters surpassing GOP registration by 1 million voters. What
about in other states? Do we have national Republican leaders who have given up
on this very simple yet necessary task?
3.
Voter Fraud! There is no way that tutu-wearing
terrorist sympathizer Kyrsten Sinema would have carried off such a close upset
in Maricopa County, Arizona while the rest of the state voted for other
statewide Republican candidates by wide margins. Nevada, Florida, and
California need thorough voter fraud investigations—and voter ID is not enough
to combat this corruption.
4.
Anti-Trumpism in blue states requires a strong
counter-argument, not a vapid retreat. The path to regaining the House of
Representatives in 2020 includes suburban areas, especially in blue states. New
Jersey’s delegation has gone from five Republicans to just one. This is
inexcusable. Illinois voters threw out one Republican, but at least Trump
worked hard enough to help Southern Illinois incumbents like Mike Bost. Does
Trump want to win forty states or not?
5.
Red State House losses: Mia Love spent more time
sparring with President Trump than paying attention to her own district. Kevin
Yoder did the bidding of Big Business rather than the voters. Mark Sanford’s
loss was Never-Trumpism at its worst. His replacement needed to do more than
simply say “Trump endorsed me”, but the tragic car accident she endured marred
her campaign. Mike Coffman was getting more liberal by the minute, and that
didn’t help him.
6.
The suburbs! President Trump’s agenda is helping
working Americans. Great. There are plenty of upwardly mobile suburban voters
that need to know that the President has their back, too.
The losses could have been worse, but it’s not good to lose.
Republicans need to do more than coast on Trump’s coattails or run from him if
they want substantial victories in 2020.
