Showing posts with label Minnesota. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minnesota. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Minnesota GOP Launches Recall Efforts Against No-Show Minnesota Democrats

Is there hope for the Republican Party of Minnesota?

They currently have a slim one-seat majority, and yet the Democratic Party is refusing to show up to work.

They want to wait until a special election is held to fill in a tie-breaking seat, which will force the House into a power-sharing agreement instead of allowing a Republican majority.

The Democratic Party across the country is doubling down on dumb rather than making an effort to win back voters they have lost over the last two election cycles.

Let's see if a GOP resurgence is on the horizon in Minnesota, as well (and perhaps a Republican will win the Electoral Votes in 2028?)

Friends,


For nearly three weeks, House Democrats have refused to show up for work—while taking nearly $10,000 a day in taxpayer money.


They are holding the state hostage, ignoring their duty, and failing the people of Minnesota.


Enough is enough. It’s time to hold them accountable.


That’s why we are launching a new website MinnesotaRecall.com —a statewide movement to recall every legislator who refuses to do their job.

Join us in this fight.Donate today to power this recall effort.
CHIP IN TO RECALL NO SHOW DEMOCRATS!

Why This Matters


Minnesotans go to work every day—if they don’t show up, they don’t get paid.


House Democrats are pocketing taxpayer money while refusing to do their jobs.


They are collecting nearly $10,000 a day—without showing up.


They think they’re untouchable. We’re here to prove them wrong.


This Is Totally Un-Minnesotan. It’s Egregious. It’s Irresponsible.


Minnesotans expect accountability, common sense, and leadership—not corruption, dysfunction, and excuses.


The Democrats’ failed leadership must end. This recall effort is our chance to take back Minnesota and restore integrity in government.


We need your help. Stand with us. Donate now.

HOLD THE DEMOCRATS ACCOUNTABLE - CHIP IN TO RECALL NO SHOW DEMOCRATS!

For more information, visit MinnesotaRecall.com


Together, we will hold these legislators accountable and bring real leadership back to Minnesota.


Let’s get to work.


Thank you for standing with us.


In service,

Alex Plechash, Chairman

The Republican Party of Minnesota



P.S.



Time is of the essence. The Democrats think they can collect their taxpayer-funded paychecks and hide from accountability. Let’s show them that Minnesotans demand better.


Donate today to help fund the recall effort and send a message loud and clear.


You Can Help by donating to help us hold the Governor Walz and the DFL accountable and protect our election laws. Click here to help.

Hold Governor Walz and the DFL Accountable - Click Here to Help
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Saturday, November 2, 2024

LIVE: Minnesota Somali Leaders Endorse Trump for President

                       

There's only one comment I can make: Hell is freezing over!

Not sure that this endorsement will be enough to move Minnesota into the Republican column, though.

Minnesota has remained that elusive prize for Republicans since 1972, the last time that a Republican nominee won the state's electoral votes (Richard Nixon, and even then, it was a close 51% to 48%).

Reagan never won Minnesota.

I have my concerns:

1. They talked about how they want to end the war, presumably the war in Gaza. Does this mean that Trump will start abandoning Israel, start moving away from pushing for more Abraham Accords?

2. Islam is a religion of deception. No one can deny that, since so much of the Quran urges deception in the furtherance of Islam. Yet, if these voters are willing to take the risk and speak up in support of Donald Trump, I can accept that.

3. As I have written and shared before, more Muslims are pushing against the extremism of Jihad and Sharia Law. Many Muslims believe that Israel has a right to exist, and they reject the terrorism of Islam. But are there enough of them in this country to speak out against terrorism?

4. I respect the fact that these Somalis want a safer America. They are tired of the crime, they are tired of the lack of safety, and they are tired of their needs and concerns being ignored. However, how many of them voted for Ilhan Omar in the Minnesota primary earlier this year?

5. I am not surprised that one of the members, who had supported Bernie Sanders, came forward to support Donald Trump. Many Berniecrats switched their votes to Trump because he was a populist just like Bernie. That does not mean that they are more conservative than they were in the past.

The Berniecrat also sounded off on the stolen nomination which replaced Biden with Kamala Harris, who did not win one delegate in 2020 or 2024.

6. Many of the Somalis are still upset with President Obama (and Biden) for their strikes on Somalia. I hope that more voters expect to see peace around the world, and they respect that Israel is not the source of evil and military trauma in the world.

I think more voters always help, but I wonder if this late endorsement will be enough to turn Minnesota red. Will it at least force the Democratic Party to spend more money in Minnesota, and thus spend less money in swing states?

I can say this month: I did not have "Somali Muslims for Trump" on my 2024 Political Bingo card!

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

MassResistance Activists Stop Reparative Therapy Bans Across the Country!

MassResistance activists help stop bills in legislatures across the country that would ban reparative therapy for youth

Big victories (and a few tough losses) against national push from LGBT lobbying machine

Here are the stories of what happened in 7 states

June 18, 2019
ALT TEXTThis team of Colorado MassResistance parents really covered the waterfront inside the Colorado State House that day!
A top priority of the LGBT movement is to pass their outrageous “therapy ban” bills in states where they previously failed to get them through. These cruel bills would make it illegal for licensed therapists to help children who were sexually molested or otherwise traumatized and as a result experience unwanted same-sex attraction or “gender identity” confusion.
Several state legislatures that wisely rejected these bills in the past were being targeted again this year by the powerful LGBT lobby.
The LGBT lobby and its radical supporters were particularly energized this year. Across the country in 2018, Democrats won an impressive margin of seats in the United States Congress. Some of this momentum spilled over into state races where they took over a few governors’ seats, and Democrats increased their numbers in many state legislatures. Fortunately, they did not win outright majorities in red states.
However, their inability to capture control of a state legislature did not mean that they would not press forward on the LGBT agenda there. Nor did it mean that Republican legislators wouldn’t cave to pressures from corporations, the liberal media, and the aggressive Left.
The first several months of 2019 became a critical time as the new legislatures reconvened. MassResistance was ready for anything – and we received calls for help from a number of states. We helped local activists lobby hard and effectively, and supplied information and talking points. In some cases, local groups were also in the fight. But we’re pleased to have been able to make a significant difference.
Below are the stories of what happened in seven states: Utah, Nebraska, Minnesota, Arizona, New York, Massachusetts, and Colorado.

Utah

Even though Utah is one of the reddest states in the United States with a long-standing reputation as a bastion of pro-family values, the truth is actually quite different. The Mormon Church, which has a major influence in the state both politically and socially, has slowly eased off its formerly strong stance against the LGBT agenda. An influx of liberals into the state over the past decade has also had a negative effect. As a result, the supposed “pro-family” Republican Party which governs at every level in Utah has become soft on homosexual and transgender issues.
Earlier this year, the leadership of the Mormon Church declared that they would neither endorse nor oppose HB 399, a bill which would have banned reparative therapy for minors. Even worse, the current Governor, Republican Gary Herbert, signaled his support for the legislation.
Activists in the Beehive State reached out to our office for help. Our Organization Director coordinated with local pro-family leaders in Salt Lake City. They specifically targeted the House Judiciary Committee, whose Vice-Chair, Craig Hall, was a key co-sponsor of the reparative therapy ban, HB 399.
ALT TEXT
Members of the Judiciary Committee actually reached out to our team, asking for clear talking points to clarify why that bill—or any reparative therapy ban—must be stopped at all costs.
Following relentless pro-family pressure and lobbying, the chair of the Utah House Judiciary Committee offered amendments to the original bill. These amendments would re-write the bill to simply outlaw physical treatments like painful pressure or electro-shock therapy. This put the LGBT lobby in a quandary because these “physical treatments” don’t really exist, but those talking points are used by the Left to scare legislators into supporting these reparative therapy bans.
Sure enough, the LGBT lobby condemned the amendments! For them, the point of this legislative push was to undermine (and make illegal) the whole concept of assisting children to deal with unwanted homosexual feelings or “gender identity” confusion. They insisted on having everything they wanted, or having the entire bill scrapped.
As a result the legislation ended up being suspended and was never voted upon.
This was huge victory against disturbing odds, including the floundering statewide religious establishment, the weak Republican majority political apparatus, and the LGBT lobby in Utah. The Governor himself was prepared to sign off on something—anything—toward banning the life-saving therapy.

Nebraska

Nebraska has a unicameral legislature – only a State Senate. A particularly odious reparative therapy ban was filed this year by Senator Megan Hunt, a liberal-leaning member of the Senate and openly bisexual. The bill would have officially deemed “conversion therapy” an abusive, ineffective practice akin to child abuse. That strategy is becoming more common among pro-LGBT activists and anti-therapy proponents.
Nebraskans for Founders Values (NFFV) is a MassResistance affiliate and well-versed in lobbying their legislators. They began their heavy opposition to LB 167 immediately.
ALT TEXT
At the public hearing, the NFFV team testified over three hours, plus got hundreds of emails from constituents across the state sent to the Nebraska Senate Judiciary Committee. Those efforts were immediatelysuccessful, forcing the bill onto an inactive list! The LGBT lobby in Nebraska was beaten soundly!

Minnesota

Another state that has become uncertain terrain is Minnesota, which has a Democratic Governor and Democrat control of the State House of Representatives. However, the Republicans have managed to hold onto the State Senate - and in fact they increased their number by two seats in special elections this year.
At the beginning of the 2019 session, two identical anti-therapy bills were filed – one in the House, HF12, and one in the Senate, SF83. These bans went beyond just youth to include adults also. Both bills were immediately sent to each branch’s Health and Human Services Finance and Policy Committee. MassResistance activists went right to work and began contacting key members of those committees.
ALT TEXTGetting ready to enter a legislative office building at the Minnesota State Capitol.
The Senate seemed to be our best chance for stopping the bill. However, our Minnesota team did not trust that the so-called pro-family Republicans would stand their ground. The Minneapolis Star newspaper published an article describing how Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka’s 30-year-old daughter (who admittedly had a history of mental illness) was a lesbian who had suffered under so-called “conversion therapy.” The pro-LGBT media was also busy repeating the wide range of lies about what reparative therapy actually is, and was using every trick to shame and bully the Republican senate majority to cave in and vote for a reparative therapy ban.
The Senate debate on the bill was contentious. Finally, there was an attempt to pass the bill, but it failed on party lines.
However, some Republicans were starting to cave in and were looking for a compromise. At that point, there was a discussion of tying the conversion ban bill to the state’s Health and Human Services budget. Several MassResistance activists continued to lobby hard. State Senators assured our activists that they had no interest in trying to push any reparative therapy ban, and that idea also failed.
Special Session and Last Minute Push
When the formal session ended in May, the Minnesota Legislature had not completed its budget process. So the Governor called the Legislature back into a special session a few days later to finish that job.
There was still talk among members in the two chambers about attaching a reparative therapy ban as an amendment within the general Health and Human Services Budget. So the pro-family forces went back into action.
ALT TEXT
Members of our Minnesota MassResistance team took nothing for granted. Throughout the state, our activists called their State House Reps and Senators to state their opposition to any ban on reparative therapy. Having heard loudly and clearly from citizens across the state, the final Health and Human Services budget included nothing on conversion therapy. This was a big success considering all the last-minute discussions and back-room deals that were taking place.

Arizona

At the beginning of this year’s legislative session, a Democrat State Senator introduced SB 1047, banning reparative therapy for minors. What made this bill more disconcerting, however, was that the legislation was co-sponsored by two Republican State Senators.
This session, both the State Senate and State House have only a one-seat Republican majority. Republican legislators in other states have crossed over with Democrats to help bring reparative therapy bans to governors’ desks before, and there was a big fear it would happen here.
ALT TEXT
The bill started in the Senate, so MassResistance activists targeted the bill’s sponsor and co-sponsors in the Senate, and also made sure that the other Senators got lots of information to reject this bill. In particular, our activists worked on the State Senate leadership to stop this bill from even getting a hearing. Within one month, it was announced that the legislation would not be heard before the legislative deadlines.
Thus, SB 1047 died in the Arizona State Senate without one hearing scheduled! Without the forceful pressure of MassResistance activists across the state, it is likely that this bill could have made it through and become law!

Learning from the failures

New York

New York was a nightmare. Many people across the country are aware of what happened with the state’s horrible abortion law. But a terrible therapy ban passed, too.
For many years, left-wing, anti-cultural pro-LGBT interests had attempted one progressive agenda item after another, only to see the worst legislation die in the State Senate, which was controlled for a long time by a coalition of moderate Democrats along with the Republican minority caucus.
But in the 2018 election, enough far-left Democrats won to give them an outright majority in both chambers of the New York State Legislature – along with the record third-term election for Governor Andrew Cuomo.
And they moved with lightning speed. Within a few weeks of the new 2019 session, a flood of hideous legislation sailed through so quickly that conservatives had little opportunity to react. The whole legislative process was very sleazy and dishonest. These three bills were passed and signed into law within the first month: a full-on reparative therapy ban, a bill stipulating rights for so-called transgender individuals, and most radical pro-abortion law in the United States.
ALT TEXT
In the short time available, New York MassResistance members connected with fellow activists and lobbyists in Albany, but the LGBT juggernaut and the corrupt legislative leadership proved too strong and too well-organized for pro-family forces to stop the legislation.

Massachusetts

Over the years, MassResistance activists have been able to successfully thwart numerous reparative therapy bans which the LGBT lobby had filed in previous sessions. This year, however, the pro-LGBT legislative leadership engaged in shady tactics, often keeping the public in the dark about the bill’s actual legislative process. The House and Senate leadership pushed the legislation through both chambers within one month. The normal process usually takes around nine months or so. (In Massachusetts each legislative session lasts two years.)
The leadership moved Bill H140 forward very early and at breathtaking speed, so conservatives would have little time to react. This was accompanied by an enormous amount of angry ranting and misinformation about the nature of this therapy by far-left legislators, who were determined not to lose this time.
It quickly passed the House surprisingly easily, 147-8, with 23 of the 32 House Republicans shamefully supporting this horrible bill.
Then it went right to the Senate. MassResistance activists across the state did the best they could to educate their Senators about the terrible damage this bill would do to children. In particular, members of our main office worked with the Chief of Staff for the Senate Republican Minority Leader, Bruce Tarr.
ALT TEXTBrian Camenker (right) and two Cape Cod MassResistance activists enter the office of the Chairman of the Senate Rules Committee for a meeting on the anti-therapy bill.
But within a few days the bill had been passed by a few Senate committees and was on the Senate floor for a vote. When the debate on started, the Republicans brought up a few moderate talking points, but did not aggressively counter the Left’s rhetoric. Then there was a break while the six Senate Republicans held an extended caucus. It appeared they were planning a delaying tactic.
But when the session resumed, things took a turn for the worse. All six of these “pro-family” Republicans announced that they actually supported a reparative therapy ban, but then qualified their remarks by criticizing the process by which the legislation was being handled. It was pure cowardice in the face of the name-calling and hysterics by the pro-LGBT Senators.
When the vote came, the 34 Democrats all voted “Yes” and all six Republicans voted “Present.” The bill passed, and pro-family people were stunned and outraged. A few days later, RINO Governor Baker signed the bill into law.
It was a shameful display by the “Republicans” in the Massachusetts Legislature, whom many people had counted on to lead the fight against this kind of lunacy.

Colorado

Our Colorado MassResistance activists worked very hard to pressure lawmakers to reject a ban on reparative therapy, HB19-1129. Colorado MassResistance has an impressive number of activists all over the state. Our activists’ strategy was to form tight-knit coalitions with other local pro-family groups to confront this proposed legislation.
A big problem was that at the same time there was another major anti-family bill working its way through the Legislature. Bill HB19-1032 was a comprehensive sex-ed bill which would also ban teaching “abstinence only” sex-ed in public schools. This issue attracted far more attention and energy from pro-family activists in Colorado than the anti-therapy bill, including from our own MassResistance members.
In spite of this divided focus, teams of Colorado MassResistance activists paid a number of visits to the state capitol in Denver to fight both bills as best they could. They were surprised to find out that many of the staffers for key legislators did not know what was actually in either of the bills, and they often contradicted each other when we discussed the bills with them.
ALT TEXTColorado MassResistance activist (right) describes to legislative staffer what's REALLY in these bills!
Our MassResistance members networked very well and connected with others across the state as best as they could. The progressive, anti-family, LGBT push proved too strong, however, and we lost. Both bills passed and were gleefully signed into law by Colorado Governor Jared Polis, who is openly homosexual and aggressively left-wing.
ALT TEXT
Looking over what happened in Colorado, we also realized that many pro-family groups were more interested in holding large protests at the state capitol – especially on the weekends when lawmakers aren’t even there – than in actual lobbying. Furthermore, many groups were focused extensively on the pro-life issues in the sex-ed bill, and had no virtually interest in fighting the anti-therapy bill. The long-term consequences of anti-therapy bills should not have been ignored, and sadly most pro-family activists just didn’t take those threats seriously enough, we believe.

Final Reflection

Despite some setbacks, we believe that all reparative therapy bans will eventually get struck down by the courts.
In NIFLA v. Becerrathe majority opinion of the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that “professional speech” is just as protected as any other speech. This signaled that they are prepared to strike down reparative therapy bans across the country.
More recently, in Vazzo v. Tampa,a federal district judge in Florida struck down the Tampa Bay reparative therapy ban which had passed the previous year. The district judge relied on the legal opinion of the majority ruling in NIFLA to establish his own decision.
Shortly after the passage of a ban on reparative therapy for minors in Maryland, Virginia-based therapist and pro-family activist Chris Doyle filed his own lawsuit against the law in Doyle v. Hogan et al.According to some reports, the federal district judge in that state respects and follows closely the legal precedent of the Supreme Court, which very likely means that he will strike down Maryland’s reparative therapy ban.
With two different federal jurisdictions fighting this agenda, plus our own legislative activism and victories against these bans, these cases will likely head to the Supreme Court for a final decision—which will likely fall in favor of protecting the First Amendment and the rights of parents and children to pursue reparative therapy.
In the meantime, MassResistance activists will keep their eyes out for future attempts from the above state legislatures or other states ban reparative therapy for minors or adults.
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Thursday, September 6, 2018

Roll Call: The Five States to Watch for Election 2018 (Reflection)


Roll Call is another left-leaning political news rag, based in Washington DC.

The publication graces a number of desks and waiting rooms throughout Washington DC, especially in the House Offices.



For Election 2018, these articles are worth looking over to get a picture of how the press is evaluating the targeted House seats going forward.



With a growing number of vulnerable House districts, there might be too much to watch for on election night. But by focusing on just a handful of states, you can get a pretty good idea of whether Democrats are having a good enough night to gain the 23 seats necessary to win back the majority.



Minnesota

Competitive races: 5

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 1

The Land of 10,000 Lakes is home to five competitive House races, which is remarkable considering there are only eight congressional districts total in Minnesota.

Netting one seat might not sound like a steep climb for Democrats (who are technically part of the state’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), but it would be a significant feat considering they are defending three districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2016.

DFL Rep. Collin C. Peterson is likely to win re-election in the 7th District (rated Likely Democratic), but holding the open 1st and 8th districts (left behind by gubernatorial nominee Rep. Tim Walz and retiring Rep. Rick Nolan, respectively) will be more difficult. Both are rated Toss-ups at this stage, but Democrats might be fortunate to lose just one.

If they lose bot, this is YUGE news for us. Republicans are positioned in many ways to do very well in Minnesota. President Trump's MAGA Agenda has been essential to Minnesotans, troubled not just by higher crime and bad trade deals, but the refugee crisis of open borders and illegal immigration.

On their offensive map, Democrats are probably struggling to reach a majority if they can’t defeat Republican Rep. Jason Lewis in the 2nd District (Toss-up). But if they can knock off Lewis and GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in the 3rd District (Tilts Republican), they’ll probably be able to gain a seat out of the state.

Minnesota bottom line: Democrats probably need to gain at least a seat, while breaking even would be a disappointment.'

Very happy to hear about this. I believe that this will be the year that Minnesota goes from blue state to red state, and for good. The Democratic Party no longer cares about farmers and laborers. The Republican Party does, and Trump has brought that working class bonhomie back!



California

Competitive races: 9

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 5

Unlike Minnesota, it’s virtually all upside for Democrats in the Golden State. There are at least nine legitimately vulnerable GOP districts, while the Republican takeover opportunities have either faded or have yet to develop.

I have to call "BullSh--t" on this one. No matter how pumped up the Democratic Party may feel about the races in this state, the incumbents whom they are targeting are not as week as pundits may think.

Dana Rohrabacher is facing a steep set of challenges, sure. However, local and national political sites have often listed Rohrabacher's seat as a toss-up, but he has continued to win his seat handily without serious problem or incident.

The most likely to flip right now is the 49th District (Tilts Democratic), which opened after GOP Rep. Darrell Issa decided against seeking re-election. Democrats are also optimistic about winning Rep. Ed Royce’s open seat in the 39th District (Toss-up), although Republicans, who are confident about their nominee, have a very different view of the race. Democrats also believe they’re likely to defeat GOP Dana Rohrabacher in the 48th (Toss-up). Losing any of those seats — especially the open seats in districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 — would be a punch in the gut for Democrats.

Gil Cisneros, who is running for CD-39 to replace Ed Royce, is a under an ethical and criminal cloud for sexual misconduct. He is part of the #MeToo madness which has overwhelmed the Democratic Party. Young Kim served as Congressman Ed Royce's district director for 20 years before she ran for state assembly in 2014 and won. She lost her re-election bid, then sought a seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors. She switched to Royce's seat

But the party also has good takeover opportunities against Reps. Jeff Denham (10th District), Steve Knight (25th District), and Mimi Walters (45th District). The three races are currently rated Tilts Republican, but winning at least one of them is reasonable for Democrats under reasonably good electoral conditions.

Denham is going to be fine. The Democrats have been pushing this line for the last four years. They are not going to dislodge Denham. He is too well-known in the district. Central Valley politicians hold virtually the same positions, whether Democrat or Republican. They form the best relationships with all interested parties in the region, and no one can get rid of them.

Reps. Tom McClintock (4th District), David Valadao (21st District), and Duncan Hunter (50th District) are all vulnerable, albeit for different reasons. Their races are rated Likely Republican. Valadao has been a particularly elusive target for Democrats, and defeating him would be as symbolic of the cycle as it would be important for the majority.

Tom McClintock should not be on this list. Period. This is a total joke.

As for David Valadao, see Jeff Denham, and then add another element: the Democrat running against him is a total left-wing progressive whose San Francisco values simply cannot connect with the Central Valley constituency which Valadao has represented since his days in the state legislature.

Valadao is going to be fine.

Steve Knight? Same thing. His challenger, Katie Hill, is essentially another Los Angeles liberal completely out of place in the Antelope Valley/Simi Valley region. They are way too left-wing for districts where the incumbents are well-know by name and legislative legacy.

California bottom line: Democrats need to gain five seats here, but could theoretically get close to half of the overall gains they need for a majority if they sweep the California races.

Verdict. Only one seat may be lost: CD-49, although very likely that election will not be decided until two weeks after the election. Democrats are not going to net five seats. Not going to happen.



New York
Competitive races: 5

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 2

When it comes to New York, Democrats need a takeover state of mind, but none of the vulnerable Republican seats are easy or guaranteed. If Democrats fail to oust Reps. Claudia Tenney (22nd District) and John J. Faso (19th District), it’s going to be a long night for the party. Both seats are currently Toss-ups, but both incumbents are polling in the low- to mid-40s in most surveys.

Incumbency is almost as long-lasting as reigning monarchy, especially in New York. Faso is a liberal-leaning Republican, anyway

GOP Rep. John Katko consistently turns potentially competitive races into laughers, but Democrats haven’t given up hope in the 24th District this year. Even though former Rep. Michael G. Grimm didn’t win the Republican primary in the 11th District, Democrats still have a credible challenger to Rep. Dan Donovan. And Rep. Chris Collins’ indictment for insider trading opens the door for Democrats in the open 27th District. All are rated as Likely Republican, and wins here would be indicators of a good night for Democrats.

The 27th will stay in Republican hands. A new candidate will ensure a higher turnout, though.

New York bottom line: Democrats have a handful of opportunities and probably need to gain at least two for a majority. If they win more, and races such as the 1st District against Rep. Lee Zeldin truly come into play, Democrats are having a great night.

Zeldin has been very attentive to the concerns of his constituents, and his legislative record has demonstrated enough independence to ensure that he is sold on Trump's issues, even if he is not solidly on the Trump train.



Pennsylvania
Competitive races: 9

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 4

Democrats had a handful of targets in the Keystone State before the new congressional map was put in place. Now, with a combination of new district lines and open seats, Democrats have at least seven takeover opportunities.

Pennsylvania is the state which has given me the greatest pause. The districts were strictly gerrymandered, and even then one of the seats which had been solidly Republican for decades suddenly fell into Democratic hands. Is it possible that Connor Lamb could get ousted when the requisite number of Republican voters finally show up to the polls?

The 5th and 6th districts (Likely Democratic), left open by GOP Reps. Patrick Meehan and Ryan A. Costello, are ripe for the picking for Democrats. Former GOP Rep. Charlie Dent left behind a seat (now the new 7th District), which is vulnerable (Tilts Democratic), probably more so now that the GOP candidate had to spend time fending off a misconduct allegation. And new Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb has an excellent chance of knocking off GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus in the 17th District (Leans Democratic).

Democrats are also excited about their chances in the 1st District (Tilts Republican) against GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and have longer-shot chances against Scott Perry (10th District) and Mike Kelly (16th District), with both races rated Likely Republican.

Democrats are likely to lose the 14th District, which constitutes a majority of the territory where Lamb won his special election. But Lamb lives — and is running — in the newly drawn 17th. So Democrats will have to subtract at least one from any gains elsewhere. Republicans also have a credible challenger against Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in the 8th District (Leans Democratic), but it’s still too early to know if the congressman is in real trouble.

Pennsylvania bottom line: Democrats have a plethora of opportunities but will take at least one hit to their gains. They probably need to net at least four seats here.

They might get those four seats in Pennsylvania. One can only hope that Trump's victory in Erie County, which has never happened for a Republican, can intimate that Republican turnout will improve across the state on Election Night.



Illinois
Competitive races: 3

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 2

Illinois is on the list because Republicans' last greatest hope, Bruce Rauner, turned into the biggest failure, the most massive disappointment. He betrayed the Republicans and the conservative base he had pledged to work with on one issue after another.

Illinois has become a lost cause, and there is little else to blame besides Rauner.

There aren’t a ton of competitive races in Illinois, but they could be symptomatic of races around the country.

GOP Rep. Peter Roskam hasn’t had a competitive race in years, but he’s vulnerable in his 6th District (Toss-up), in part because of Trump’s unpopularity in the Chicago suburbs. Downstate, Trump carried the 12th District (Tilts Republican) handily by 15 points, but GOP Rep. Mike Bost is vulnerable, in part because Democrats recruited a strong challenger.

Bost is going to be fine. Roskam could be gone.

GOP Rep. Rodney Davis is also vulnerable in the 13th District (Leans Republican) and could suffer from increased college student turnout against the president. But the congressman isn’t in as bad of a shape right now as Roskam and Bost. If Rep. Randy Hultgren ends up in a neck-and-neck race in the 14th District, Democrats are having a solid night. His race is rated Solid Republican for now. Trump carried the 14th District — drawn to elect a Republican after the last census — by nearly 4 points, but the congressman hasn’t had a real race in years.

Congressman will do better than Presidents sometimes. The incumbency of being Congressman helps.

Illinois bottom line: Democrats need to gain two seats here for numerical and symbolic reasons. The party needs the numbers to get back to the majority, but winning in the suburbs is key (6th District), and seeing their top recruits succeed (12th District) would be good for morale as well.

Looking over the three seats analyzed by Roll Call, I think that Democrats are wasting their time on these incumbents. They won't win big in this state.

The article suggests that California has a lot of flip opportunities. I sincerely doubt that. The biggest chances of victory for Democrats will run through Pennsylvania.

Democrats have to win a net 23 house seats. They lost the special election for the Ohio race. They will win at least two seats in Minnesota, and perhaps two in Pennsylvania. That brings the number of seats which Democrats must clip to 27. Despite all the money they are spending in "swing" districts in California, the fact that Hillary Clinton supposedly "won" certain districts in California does not mean that a Democratic contender will knock out a Republican incumbent. The two races operate on different dynamics. Many Democrats were motivated to turn out for Hillary Clinton in California. 



Republicans up and down the state, however, were getting different messages from party leaders at the state and national levels. Trump fired up the base, but much of the political establishment did everything possible to minimize Trump and their connection to him. Some candidates openly defied their identification with Trump, refusing to endorse or even vote for him--and they lost. I also believe that their lack of enthusiasm for the national contender hurt the turnout for lower ballot races.