Will The #SchumerShutdown Shut Down Democratic Hopes For 2018?

Election 2018 is going to be just as turbulent an election season as 2016. An enlightened or enraged electorate will be rushing to the polls this year, elated or outraged with Washington DC and President Trump’s agenda.

I am confident that Republicans will retain the United States Senate. Democrats must defend 23 seats, plus two liberal Independents who face different challenges in their own states. Republicans will gain seats even in the face of “The Blue Wave” since Democrats nationally have gone so far left, and the progressive grassroots wants Obama policies on steroids from the Democratic Party. Then again, Democrats are energized, especially for this off-year election, and their momentum is growing.

Red State Democrats, especially in the states won by Republican Presidential candidates in the last three elections, will lose. They face incredible pressure from their conservative constituents, and yet the Democratic base will fire back because these DINOs (Democrats In Name Only) will fire back, even launch primary challenges because Senators Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, etc. are voting like Republicans on certain key issues.

The House of Representatives, however, is turning into an incumbent horror story. Republicans have held power in the People’s Chamber for the last 8 years, but the caucus has already ditched one House Speaker. Paul Ryan has finally learned to listen to the conservatives and the grassroots, but with the latest shutdown, they risk appearing more dysfunctional than ever. Then again, the House will receive blame on the surface, since all appropriations bills must originate in the House. Even though in 2016 Trump won in 12 House Districts currently represented by Democrats, there is no certainty that his populist platform will buoy Republican contenders for 2018. Aside from Congressman Tim Waltz of Minnesota, who is retiring to run for Governor, incumbent Democrats are running for re-election.

Worse yet, Real Clear Politics polling has registered a 10-point to 16-points advantage for the Democratic ticket going into November. The overwhelming turnout for the Year 2018 Women’s March all over the country should also concern Republicans. They are not only ready to win big in their districts, but they are investing time, energy, resources to flip other districts. In California, Republican House mainstays Darrell Issa and Ed Royce have announced retirement, and sources indicate that Duncan Hunter will be retiring, too.

All over the Women’s March in Downtown Los Angeles yesterday, I saw so many posters featuring profanities, vulgar attacks against President Trump and the Republican majority, but I also saw frequent references to vote, vote, vote. “Blue wave” stood out, as well. President Trump needs to ramp up his rallies and campaign stops this year to counteract this political momentum, and fast.

Of course, the Democratic plans for a winning takeover in the House have hit a brick wall. The federal government needed a continuing resolution by January 19^th to ensure payment for federal employees, our military, a long-term solution for the CHIP program, and even a much-needed delay of onerous Obamacare taxes. Only six House Democrats voted for the CR (including California Congressmen Jim Costa and Salud Carbajal of California, interestingly enough). But every other Democratic House Rep essentially voted for a shutdown.

The US Senate Minority Leader, however, is getting much of the abuse from the public, and he deserves it. He cried to the press that the majority of his caucus was not on board t funding the government for another month unless amendments were including to grant legal status to illegal aliens under the now-retired DACA program.

In essence, Senate Democrats are shutting down the government over illegal immigration. Surprisingly, this talking point came from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a get-along type if there ever was one. Not only that, but Speaker Paul Ryan informed House Leadership to go home for the weekend. Two leaders are actually calling the Democrats’ bluff. I don’t give them full credit, however. Real leadership under President Trump in the White House has stiffened the spine of Congressional leaders, at least somewhat.

Democratic opposition to a clean CR is not going well for them, and it’s only going to get worse, and we can draw some inspiration to predict this Schumer Shutdown Showdown from 2013. Republicans only controlled the House, and they passed a CR which included defunding mechanisms for Obamacare. Then Speaker John Boehner didn’t want to go along with it at first, but the caucus pushed him to follow through. Yes, the government was shut down, but for the same reason as now: Democrats would not pass the CR. Majority Leader Harry Reid was probably confident that he could marshal public opinion against the Republicans. One target was US Senator Ted Cruz, who led a 22-hour non-filibuster filibuster outlining to the public how devastating Obamacare had become to working Texans. Eventually, a resolution was reached, and Republicans ended up scraped a little in the press.

Then came the Obamacare roll-out, a devastating failure. Couple that with the upcoming six-year itch against Barack Obama’s Democrats, and Republicans were riding a wave into victory for Election 2014. So, can Democrats expect a lingering backlash in their favor for this year?

I strongly doubt it. First of all, President Trump was elected specifically for his strong stance on immigration. Democrats are on the losing side of this debate by shutting down the government over illegals. Even fellow Democrats in California have voiced their opposition to this measure, regardless of their take on DACA. What’s worse, however, is that Trump’s first signature legislative achievement is actually gaining in popularity. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is working out well for businesses large and small. Individuals are seeing and enjoying the benefits which the media and Demcorats have been diminishing, denying, or outright lying about.

The Democrats have shut down the government, and Chuck Schumer, with signature tone-deafness, offers his website visitors a pitiful “Sorry, can’t help you right now” message on his website. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi takes her dwindling caucus for a night on the town. When the funding issues have been resolved three weeks later, Americans will return to appreciate Trump’s signature successes, and Democrats will have lower approval ratings going into November.

If Republicans stand strong against amnesty and hold the #SchumerShutdown meme over the minority caucus, then Republicans can look forward to holding the House as well as gaining the US Senate. The GOP leaders should be kissing President Trump’s feet because he has put his foot down, willing to fight for the American people’s priorities on immigration.

I predict that Democrats are going to be kicking themselves for going along with their radical, progressive base on immigration, suffer a national blowback, and lose further credibility in the eyes of the voters. Democrats who voted for Trump will remember why they rejected their party’s presidential nominee in 2016 and vote again them again in 2018.

Prediction: The #SchumerShutdown will shut down Democratic chances for election 2018. Republicans will lose at the most ten House seats, but retain power in the House of Representatives.