Lessons From The California 2026 Primary

 

In a previous article, I analyzed the big winners and losers of the California primary. I didn’t mention my preferred candidate, Sheriff Chad Bianco, because to me he’s still a winner, even if the rest of the state (and Trump) rejected him.

California needed saving, and I believed that the sheriff was just the man to get the job done.

I thought Trump’s endorsement wouldn’t matter. 

I went through 5 minutes of grief after I saw Bianco getting a distant fourth place in the gubernatorial race. I went through the stages of grief fairly quickly, arriving at the place of acceptance. When I could look at the assumptions I operated under and see where I went wrong, it gave me hope - and I hope it gives hope to others - that there is a way to turn things around in California. But just not right now, and not as fast as I would like.

My calculations were way off for this race. I had such hopes. Not only did Bianco lose, but Republicans running in my state assembly and state senate districts got locked out of the general election, too!

Reality TV actor Spencer Pratt, as an outspoken common-sense independent candidate for mayor, lost his chance to challenge Karen Bass for Mayor of Los Angeles in November.

Where did I go wrong? What did I learn?

1. I thought that Californians really had suffered enough, and they were ready to go in a new direction. Look at all the homes that went up in flames in Pacific Palisades! Across the states, homes have gone up in flames due to poor forestry and water practices from the Democratic-run government. The election results indicate that Californians have not suffered enough. They haven't learned that voting Democrat means more destruction. 
2. I thought the DEI dominance of the Democratic Party would frustrate their candidates and allow two Republicans into the Top Two for governor and other races. Every identity and interest group in the state of California gravitates towards their preferred candidate. Former state controller Betty Yee would get the Asian vote. The California state superintendent of schools, Tony Thurmond, would get the black vote. Former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villagosa and former Congressmember Xavier Becerra would compete for the Hispanics. Tom Steyer, with billions to burn, played Bernie Bro, embracing the most aggressive left-wing policies. Katie “Karen” Porter would get the single white female vote. However, Democrats, even though they are determined to articulate intersectionality as much as possible (no straight white males, please!), the Democrats’ drive for power remained  number one, and they figured out how to winnow the field (force out Swalwell, sideline Mahan), and ensure at least one Dem made it through to the Top Two.
3. I assumed that the hardcore progressive Berniecrats and Democratic Socialists of America would harm the Democrats with their own infighting and help Republicans. Tom Steyer blanketed the state with mailers, including high-propensity Republican voters like me. California State legislators and statewide officials split behind Steyer or the more Establishment Democrat (Porter, Becerra, Swalwell). Ultimately, Big Business and Big Labor still call the shots in California Democratic politics. Their paid politicians will pay lip service to progressive platforms, like advancing single-payer health care, enacting a ban on gas-powered everything, and eviscerating the Second Amendment. In the end, however, just like in prior elections, California Democratic power brokers muted support for the most progressive policy positions and sidelined the Berniecrats. The Democratic Party of California is performative, not progressive, and they promoted Becerra to advance into the general election. 
4. The California Republican Party faces some serious soul-searching. They face an electorate that is two to one liberal against them. The Democratic dominance is not just concentrated in the big cities, but is spreading to the suburbs. Orange County, California, was a bastion of conservatism from FDR. While the state went blue in Presidential elections from 1992 onward, Orange County stayed red. Those days are gone now. For so long, I hoped that Republicans in California could change their brand, reshape their outreach, and augment a more common-sense policy platform to appeal to disaffected Democrats and independents. Sadly, Trump Derangement Syndrome has proven too malign for liberal voters to overcome. Democrats will not vote for more reasonable people unless the candidates are registered independents, like the current Los Angeles County District Attorney, or are Democrats unafraid to buck their party and the system, like Los Angeles City Councilwoman Tracy Park.
5. Trump is the boss, even when I don’t like his endorsements or choices. The boss may make mistakes, but the boss still makes the final call. The Republican Party is now Trump's party, even in California. He has been good for the national party, since he has adopted working-class populism to win the Rust Belt. That political coalition does not resonate in blue coastal states like California. Trump expanded the electoral map and the demographics of the GOP. Those gains have not helped California. The Golden State has become an amalgam of aggressive public sector unions, festering hot beds of indoctrination in universities and public schools, plus an overwhelming population of illegals and recent arrivals committed to getting rich off the government. With interests like those, sound constitutional conservative policy cannot break through. I don't blame Trump; I blame the liberal majority in California. And this disappointing reality reverts back to my first lesson: California voters want their abject liberalism, even if those policies cause nothing but suffering. 

 

Trump will move on. Perhaps the California Republican Party can rebuild and have a future? Will there be any hope of the Republican Party brand resurgence when Trump retires? A successor can build on Trump's current policy successes, learn from his messes, restore GOP suburban outreach, and bring in disaffected upper-middle-class moms and dads. Republicans in California have to find a way to bridge that gap, including tech elites and factory workers. There are signs that such a shift can happen.

Hispanic voters, especially in California, are moving to the right, but there is a need for real economic freedom and change. The decline of public schools and the rise of homeschooling suggest that the younger generation will be more independent and certainly more open to constitutional conservative thinking. With those kinds of changes, they will open up to the Republican Party.

If we want constitutional rule restored for certain in California, it will take a religious revival, which can happen. Argentina was a socialist basket case for 100 years. Only as Christian revival surged throughout the country, a new generation of voters began to reject the bland, played-out legacy of socialism. Then, outspoken charismatic libertarian economist Javier Milei announced his bid for president, with a new party, and then took the Argentine political class by storm as their new President. 

Californians can wake up, and they can vote themselves out of political bondage. Of course, not just a change of minds in younger voters, but the welcome intervention of election integrity measures from the federal government will go a long way to ensuring a viable political system in California where the constitutional rights and the everyday needs of Californians can be respected and relieved. 

California Primary Election 2026: A Reflection

 

The California Election 2026 primary is over.

And yet, it’s not over because the counting continues.

Democratic leaders will justify the Golden State’s drawn-out counting because they emphasize ease for everyone to vote. Everyone gets a mail-in ballot; everyone can vote wherever they please in the state; and everyone should like it.

The state allows ballots to be counted up to seven days after Election Day, provided that the ballots are postmarked ON Election Day, too. UGH! It’s Election Day, as Justice Alito commented in a recent Supreme Court case, which could have upended this month and a half of counting long after Election Day.

Republicans are right to call foul on this inordinate amount of time to collect and count California’s ballots. How can anyone trust an election system in which ballots keep rolling in day after day, and certain margins start flipping seats here and there? Republicans have benefited from sudden changes in the voting, sure, but Democrats, by and large, benefit even more. It’s not a sound, integrated system.

Thankfully, the federal government is investigating the election centers. The California Post exposed the LA County voting center for having only one person manning a desk while all the other desks sat empty, all with a $336 million budget! After the expose, lots of employees showed up to start counting ballots.

So far, so good.

Let’s set aside the recriminations about voter fraud, and let’s assume the results as they stand statewide will remain relatively stable until certification. Who are the winners and losers on California’s Primary Election Night 2026?

Let’s start with the biggest winner: Trump.

He endorsed British Fox News anchor and author Steve Hilton in April (Easter Sunday, in fact), and the momentum never stopped building for him. His main rival, the Riverside County Sheriff, had launched his campaign in February 2025, and then Hilton followed about two months later. Early in the election, polls indicated that Hilton and Bianco would take up the Top Two spots. Hilton alone made it, all because of Trump.

The next winner: Xavier Becerra.

This long-time politico was struggling along with single-digit support for a greater part of the campaign season. As candidates began dropping out, including serial #MeToo creep former Congressman Eric Swalwell, Becerra’s chances increased. Democratic activists (including Indivisible chapters) networked to push back on the single-digit gubernatorial contenders, and a wide array of liberal coalitions lined up behind the former Assemblyman, Congressman, state attorney general, and Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Another winner: Steve Hilton, obviously.

A Republican made it into the Top Two again for Governor, when some of the polling disturbingly indicated that two Democrats could lock out Republicans from the governor’s race! Hilton had some slips along the way, and at one point, his opponent alleged that Hilton had run out of money. Yet he persisted, and Trump gave him another boost a week before the primary election day. Some of my friends were pledging to vote for Sheriff Bianco, but changed their minds following Trump’s reminder endorsements. So far, that boost has paid off.

Now, let’s talk about the losers:

Left-wing cosplaying billionaire Tom Steyer went down in flames yet again. He was much closer to getting the gubernatorial nomination this year compared to his silly bid for President in 2020. Not only did Steyer lose the race, he wasted $200 million for the privilege of losing again. He flooded mailboxes with campaign literature. As a high-propensity Republican voter, even I received six campaign mailers from the Steyer campaign, including a big gloss-up slamming Becerra for mismanagement, scandal, and incompetence.

None of it worked. I visited his final rally in Downtown Los Angeles, and it was a pretty middling crowd. Becerra had a rally a few hours later, with three times the attendees, endorsements, and lots of energy. Money can’t buy a politician love (just ask Hillary and Kamala!), and Steyer had to relearn that lesson.

Former Congresswoman, US Senate candidate, and now gubernatorial candidate Katie Porter burned up again during her campaign, too. Democratic operatives have never liked her, yet she didn’t get the message in 2024 when she played victim and cried about a rigged primary. In 2026, her polling bottomed out worse. It’s stunning to see how even registered Democrats had enough self-respect that they didn’t want to give the Orange County harridan Karen a chance at further political power. The nasty videos of her cursing out staff, her heated and unpleasant interview with a CBS reporter, all of which showcased her arrogance and diffidence towards others, revealed how out of touch and out of place Porter was in pursuing elected office again. She believed all the progressive headlines when she got elected to Congress, but never realized that the political aura of winning a seat in once-conservative Orange County, California, would wear off.

The Progressive-Berniecrat wing of the Democratic Party lost big time. Our Revolution, THE Bernie Sanders-aligned PAC, endorsed Tom Steyer, undermining their messaging and hurting their credibility. For years, Bernie and his bros have been railing against the billionaire class. Then they line up behind a billionaire? Steyer’s biggest promoters struggled to justify their clashing endorsement, and voters didn’t buy it. Will this latest capitulation signal the end of Bernie Sanders’ influence in national politics?

Other losers include the Republican Party establishment. California’s Republican state legislators all lined up behind Sheriff Bianco early in the race, and now they have egg on their faces. A majority of California county central committees also endorsed Bianco, yet their say didn’t amount to much. Republican leaders need to consider what role they play in California politics now that Trump is calling the shots so squarely.

On a similar note, Republican conservative grassroots, specifically the California Republican Assembly (CRA), also lost big with this primary election. As early as February 2026, Sheriff Bianco had lined up conservative support. The CRA convention endorsed Bianco overwhelmingly for Governor v. Hilton. That didn’t matter at all. The Trump endorsement wiped out any influence of this organization, and Republican voters who just vote, voted for Hilton.

This outcome should prompt reflection among conservatives and other Republican groups in California. If they differ from Trump, do they have any strategy or resources to sway voters? If they don’t have the time or energy to make their case, then why gather and organize in the first place?

The ballots are still being counted, but these results will pretty much pan out by July and into the November general election. Does Hilton have a chance against Becerra in November? It will take a miracle. If progressive voters sit out the election, and Republican turnout exceeds prior off-year general elections, Hilton has a chance. But Becerra has arranged key endorsements from major companies, and he has gathered enough support from disparate factions of the Democratic Party that he has the momentum and the message that a two-to-one Democratic state wants to hear.

One should also add that California, yet again, is the biggest loser of them all. If the election turns out as expected, we can expect four to eight more years of performative progressive government, complete with malfeasance, scandal, and incompetence.

Will California voters ever learn?