Saturday, November 1, 2014

GOP Doug Ose Ahead in CA-7 (and Why)

Former Congressman Doug Ose is now pulling seven points ahead of Democratic incumbent Ami Bera in the 7th Congressional District.

07 - Bera (D)
CA-7 (Sacramento area)
Breitbart reported on this race, but the credibility of this development is not in doubt.

Larry Sabato is making this call, and his polling and predictions have been point one accurate.

Here are the charts he posted detailing the elements of the CA-7 race:


Sept. 18, 2013


Sept. 25, 2014


Oct. 30, 2014

In the three charts above, the trends of the CA-7 seat have tilted toward the Republican. In September 2013, Sabato predicted that the seat would likely remain Democratic. Then in September, the seat became a toss-up. One month later, and the seat now leans Republican.

This development is meaningful because Bera barely won the district in 2012 against a seasoned conservative, Dan Lundgren, who had represented a Southern California constituency for a decade, then held statewide office for two terms.

Dan Lundgren, as a reminder to my South Bay conservative friends, represented Torrance, Lomita, and the Peninsula in the 1980s before he resigned for state office.

Now, Bera is dragged down by the same national ticket which brought him into office two years ago.

Doug Ose (1998)

Doug Ose represented the Sacramento area for three terms in the late 1990s to the mid 2000s. When he retired in 2005, Dan Lundgren took his place.

Now, Ose is running for the seat again.

Already, his name ID is strong in the region. Small wonder he won the primary. Still, he was running against strong and respectable Republican candidates, including 2012 US Senate candidate Elizabeth Emken, whom I had the privilege of meeting and endorsing that year. She got forty percent of the vote in a Presidential election year, and without any money. Too bad the NSCR did not send her some cash.  At any rate, experienced politicians battled for the opportunity to topple Bera, and Ose will get the chance.

Doug Ose has received strong endorsements in the region, too
And Ose's chances are looking better already. He is opposed to amnesty, he supports free market reforms for health care. He is a strong fiscal conservative who wants to expand local control for our schools. Unlike other candidates, he has stressed the water issues heavily, in part because his district has significant farming interest. There is nothing controversial or conflicted about his conservative, Republican credentials. With no slip-ups, a strong ground game, and prior presence and experience in the region, Doug Ose's example for victory can lay the groundwork for future Republican wins in the California Republican delegation.

Besides the DCCC robo-call I received October 30th for an otherwise safe Democratic seat, plus rumblings of safe Democratic districts in Illinois likely to flip, no one should be surprised that liberal media outlets are not paying attention to the CA-7 upset which is more likely than ever to take place November 4th.

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