Roll Call: The Five States to Watch for Election 2018 (Reflection)

Roll Call is another left-leaning political news rag, based in Washington DC.

The publication graces a number of desks and waiting rooms throughout Washington DC, especially in the House Offices.

For Election 2018, these articles are worth looking over to get a picture of how the press is evaluating the targeted House seats going forward.

5 States That Will Decide the House Majority

Watch these states to tell if Democrats are having a good election night

With a growing number of vulnerable House districts, there might be too much to watch for on election night. But by focusing on just a handful of states, you can get a pretty good idea of whether Democrats are having a good enough night to gain the 23 seats necessary to win back the majority.

Minnesota

Competitive races: 5

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 1

The Land of 10,000 Lakes is home to five competitive House races, which is remarkable considering there are only eight congressional districts total in Minnesota.

Netting one seat might not sound like a steep climb for Democrats (who are technically part of the state’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), but it would be a significant feat considering they are defending three districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2016.

DFL Rep. Collin C. Peterson is likely to win re-election in the 7th District (rated Likely Democratic), but holding the open 1st and 8th districts (left behind by gubernatorial nominee Rep. Tim Walz and retiring Rep. Rick Nolan, respectively) will be more difficult. Both are rated Toss-ups at this stage, but Democrats might be fortunate to lose just one.

If they lose bot, this is YUGE news for us. Republicans are positioned in many ways to do very well in Minnesota. President Trump's MAGA Agenda has been essential to Minnesotans, troubled not just by higher crime and bad trade deals, but the refugee crisis of open borders and illegal immigration.

On their offensive map, Democrats are probably struggling to reach a majority if they can’t defeat Republican Rep. Jason Lewis in the 2nd District (Toss-up). But if they can knock off Lewis and GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in the 3rd District (Tilts Republican), they’ll probably be able to gain a seat out of the state.

Minnesota bottom line: Democrats probably need to gain at least a seat, while breaking even would be a disappointment.'

Very happy to hear about this. I believe that this will be the year that Minnesota goes from blue state to red state, and for good. The Democratic Party no longer cares about farmers and laborers. The Republican Party does, and Trump has brought that working class bonhomie back!

California

Competitive races: 9

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 5

Unlike Minnesota, it’s virtually all upside for Democrats in the Golden State. There are at least nine legitimately vulnerable GOP districts, while the Republican takeover opportunities have either faded or have yet to develop.

I have to call "BullSh--t" on this one. No matter how pumped up the Democratic Party may feel about the races in this state, the incumbents whom they are targeting are not as week as pundits may think.

Dana Rohrabacher is facing a steep set of challenges, sure. However, local and national political sites have often listed Rohrabacher's seat as a toss-up, but he has continued to win his seat handily without serious problem or incident.

The most likely to flip right now is the 49th District (Tilts Democratic), which opened after GOP Rep. Darrell Issa decided against seeking re-election. Democrats are also optimistic about winning Rep. Ed Royce’s open seat in the 39th District (Toss-up), although Republicans, who are confident about their nominee, have a very different view of the race. Democrats also believe they’re likely to defeat GOP Dana Rohrabacher in the 48th (Toss-up). Losing any of those seats — especially the open seats in districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 — would be a punch in the gut for Democrats.

Gil Cisneros, who is running for CD-39 to replace Ed Royce, is a under an ethical and criminal cloud for sexual misconduct. He is part of the #MeToo madness which has overwhelmed the Democratic Party. Young Kim served as Congressman Ed Royce's district director for 20 years before she ran for state assembly in 2014 and won. She lost her re-election bid, then sought a seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors. She switched to Royce's seat

But the party also has good takeover opportunities against Reps. Jeff Denham (10th District), Steve Knight (25th District), and Mimi Walters (45th District). The three races are currently rated Tilts Republican, but winning at least one of them is reasonable for Democrats under reasonably good electoral conditions.

Denham is going to be fine. The Democrats have been pushing this line for the last four years. They are not going to dislodge Denham. He is too well-known in the district. Central Valley politicians hold virtually the same positions, whether Democrat or Republican. They form the best relationships with all interested parties in the region, and no one can get rid of them.

Reps. Tom McClintock (4th District), David Valadao (21st District), and Duncan Hunter (50th District) are all vulnerable, albeit for different reasons. Their races are rated Likely Republican. Valadao has been a particularly elusive target for Democrats, and defeating him would be as symbolic of the cycle as it would be important for the majority.

Tom McClintock should not be on this list. Period. This is a total joke.

As for David Valadao, see Jeff Denham, and then add another element: the Democrat running against him is a total left-wing progressive whose San Francisco values simply cannot connect with the Central Valley constituency which Valadao has represented since his days in the state legislature.

Valadao is going to be fine.

Steve Knight? Same thing. His challenger, Katie Hill, is essentially another Los Angeles liberal completely out of place in the Antelope Valley/Simi Valley region. They are way too left-wing for districts where the incumbents are well-know by name and legislative legacy.

California bottom line: Democrats need to gain five seats here, but could theoretically get close to half of the overall gains they need for a majority if they sweep the California races.

Verdict. Only one seat may be lost: CD-49, although very likely that election will not be decided until two weeks after the election. Democrats are not going to net five seats. Not going to happen.

New York

Competitive races: 5

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 2

When it comes to New York, Democrats need a takeover state of mind, but none of the vulnerable Republican seats are easy or guaranteed. If Democrats fail to oust Reps. Claudia Tenney (22nd District) and John J. Faso (19th District), it’s going to be a long night for the party. Both seats are currently Toss-ups, but both incumbents are polling in the low- to mid-40s in most surveys.

Incumbency is almost as long-lasting as reigning monarchy, especially in New York. Faso is a liberal-leaning Republican, anyway

GOP Rep. John Katko consistently turns potentially competitive races into laughers, but Democrats haven’t given up hope in the 24th District this year. Even though former Rep. Michael G. Grimm didn’t win the Republican primary in the 11th District, Democrats still have a credible challenger to Rep. Dan Donovan. And Rep. Chris Collins’ indictment for insider trading opens the door for Democrats in the open 27th District. All are rated as Likely Republican, and wins here would be indicators of a good night for Democrats.

The 27th will stay in Republican hands. A new candidate will ensure a higher turnout, though.

New York bottom line: Democrats have a handful of opportunities and probably need to gain at least two for a majority. If they win more, and races such as the 1st District against Rep. Lee Zeldin truly come into play, Democrats are having a great night.

Zeldin has been very attentive to the concerns of his constituents, and his legislative record has demonstrated enough independence to ensure that he is sold on Trump's issues, even if he is not solidly on the Trump train.

Pennsylvania

Competitive races: 9

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 4

Democrats had a handful of targets in the Keystone State before the new congressional map was put in place. Now, with a combination of new district lines and open seats, Democrats have at least seven takeover opportunities.

Pennsylvania is the state which has given me the greatest pause. The districts were strictly gerrymandered, and even then one of the seats which had been solidly Republican for decades suddenly fell into Democratic hands. Is it possible that Connor Lamb could get ousted when the requisite number of Republican voters finally show up to the polls?

The 5th and 6th districts (Likely Democratic), left open by GOP Reps. Patrick Meehan and Ryan A. Costello, are ripe for the picking for Democrats. Former GOP Rep. Charlie Dent left behind a seat (now the new 7th District), which is vulnerable (Tilts Democratic), probably more so now that the GOP candidate had to spend time fending off a misconduct allegation. And new Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb has an excellent chance of knocking off GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus in the 17th District (Leans Democratic).

Democrats are also excited about their chances in the 1st District (Tilts Republican) against GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and have longer-shot chances against Scott Perry (10th District) and Mike Kelly (16th District), with both races rated Likely Republican.

Democrats are likely to lose the 14th District, which constitutes a majority of the territory where Lamb won his special election. But Lamb lives — and is running — in the newly drawn 17th. So Democrats will have to subtract at least one from any gains elsewhere. Republicans also have a credible challenger against Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright in the 8th District (Leans Democratic), but it’s still too early to know if the congressman is in real trouble.

Pennsylvania bottom line: Democrats have a plethora of opportunities but will take at least one hit to their gains. They probably need to net at least four seats here.

They might get those four seats in Pennsylvania. One can only hope that Trump's victory in Erie County, which has never happened for a Republican, can intimate that Republican turnout will improve across the state on Election Night.

Illinois

Competitive races: 3

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 2

Illinois is on the list because Republicans' last greatest hope, Bruce Rauner, turned into the biggest failure, the most massive disappointment. He betrayed the Republicans and the conservative base he had pledged to work with on one issue after another.

Illinois has become a lost cause, and there is little else to blame besides Rauner.

There aren’t a ton of competitive races in Illinois, but they could be symptomatic of races around the country.

GOP Rep. Peter Roskam hasn’t had a competitive race in years, but he’s vulnerable in his 6th District (Toss-up), in part because of Trump’s unpopularity in the Chicago suburbs. Downstate, Trump carried the 12th District (Tilts Republican) handily by 15 points, but GOP Rep. Mike Bost is vulnerable, in part because Democrats recruited a strong challenger.

Bost is going to be fine. Roskam could be gone.

GOP Rep. Rodney Davis is also vulnerable in the 13th District (Leans Republican) and could suffer from increased college student turnout against the president. But the congressman isn’t in as bad of a shape right now as Roskam and Bost. If Rep. Randy Hultgren ends up in a neck-and-neck race in the 14th District, Democrats are having a solid night. His race is rated Solid Republican for now. Trump carried the 14th District — drawn to elect a Republican after the last census — by nearly 4 points, but the congressman hasn’t had a real race in years.

Congressman will do better than Presidents sometimes. The incumbency of being Congressman helps.

Illinois bottom line: Democrats need to gain two seats here for numerical and symbolic reasons. The party needs the numbers to get back to the majority, but winning in the suburbs is key (6th District), and seeing their top recruits succeed (12th District) would be good for morale as well.

Looking over the three seats analyzed by Roll Call, I think that Democrats are wasting their time on these incumbents. They won't win big in this state.

The article suggests that California has a lot of flip opportunities. I sincerely doubt that. The biggest chances of victory for Democrats will run through Pennsylvania.

Democrats have to win a net 23 house seats. They lost the special election for the Ohio race. They will win at least two seats in Minnesota, and perhaps two in Pennsylvania. That brings the number of seats which Democrats must clip to 27. Despite all the money they are spending in "swing" districts in California, the fact that Hillary Clinton supposedly "won" certain districts in California does not mean that a Democratic contender will knock out a Republican incumbent. The two races operate on different dynamics. Many Democrats were motivated to turn out for Hillary Clinton in California. 

Republicans up and down the state, however, were getting different messages from party leaders at the state and national levels. Trump fired up the base, but much of the political establishment did everything possible to minimize Trump and their connection to him. Some candidates openly defied their identification with Trump, refusing to endorse or even vote for him--and they lost. I also believe that their lack of enthusiasm for the national contender hurt the turnout for lower ballot races.