Saturday, November 11, 2017

Trump's Movement, Victory, and Voter Turnout

I have found more points of discussion and departure with Ben Shapiro about President Trump, why he won in 2016, and the nature of growing Republican victories and Democratic opportunities throughout the country.

Here were some comments worth responding to in one of his articles published in

Trump supporters are wrong that Trump is untouchable. Trump didn't win in 2016 purely because he's some sort of Teflon candidate; he won because he ran against the weakest candidate in American history. Trump actually won fewer votes in Wisconsin than Republican nominee Mitt Romney did in 2012. Nobody showed up to vote for Clinton, so Trump won the state. Trump won fewer votes in Michigan than Republican nominee George W. Bush did in 2004. Nobody liked Clinton, so Trump won the state. What will happen if Democrats choose not to run a corrupt, venal and thoroughly charisma-free candidate? 

That's true.

But the argument that Hillary Clinton was worse, and not just that Trump had a better message, doesn't explain everything.

What will happen if they run former Vice President Joe Biden or Sen. Bernie Sanders? Between 2000, when George W. Bush lost the popular vote by about 544,000, and 2004, when he won it, he picked up some 10 million votes. Where is Trump going to pick up similar numbers?

One Trump pollster affirmed that Sanders on the Democratic ticket would have turned out better for Sanders, because he had a populist message of sorts for working Americans losing jobs all over the country to foreign, third-world competitors.

Now, what gives pause to the first part of this analysis?

Pennsylvania, for starters.

The voter turnout was actually higher in the Keystone State compared to 2012.

Granted, Trump won fewer votes than Obama had won in 2012 to carry that state, but he did far better than Romney had done, and the election was very close. Hillary Clinton won more votes than Romney had own, also. Oh, and Trump won more votes than Kerry had won in 2004.

What about Ohio?

Voter turnout was actually higher in this state, too, compared to 2012.

What about who won what?

Trump won 51% of the vote. He won more votes than Obama had won in 2012, and came close to Bush's numbers in 2004. He definitely exceeded Bush's numbers in 2000.

What about Florida?

Trump exceeded Obama's numbers in 2012 and 2008, and Bush's numbers in 2004 and 2000.

There is a lot of movement and momentum behind Trump's campaign, and the pundits who love him or hate him need to pay attention to the whole nation, not just the states where his victories came because of lower turnout.

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