Put Presidential Posturing, Republicans and Democrats

The year 2013 has not even grazed the last month, even though Christmas ornaments clutter the store shelves, yet Republicans are already handicapping the 2016 Presidential election.

Fresh off a 60% win in two-to-one Democratic New Jersey, Chris Christie has waffled on gay marriage (he opposes it, and he would oppose his kids’ marrying if they acknowledged a homosexual bent). He has strayed away from supporting a pathway to citizenship for the eleven million (and definitely more) illegal immigrants in the United States. Still basking in his famous affronts to disgruntled teachers (“Then you know what, you don’t have to do it!”), Christie wasted his time hammering his fellow Republicans than holding President Obama accountable.

Despite the loss of love between conservatives, grass-roots operations, and even notable media pundits (including the unimpressed Sean Hannity, who warned Christie about gun control), Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer has declared the New Jersey heavyweight the unofficial front-runner for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2016.

In the Democratic corner, Hillary Clinton, first wife, US Senator, 2008 Presidential nominee, Secretary of State, is prepping for a 2016 run, according to all unofficial accounts. Stumping for Virginia governor-elect Terry McAuliffe, she faulted the failure of leadership in the White House, and House Speaker Newt Gingrich sadly admitted that the GOP following the 2012 disappointments is not ready for Hillary.

All of this presidential prognosticating ignores outlying factors, like sudden personal errors, circumstantial crises, and the eternity of political patience which can turn the most obvious of front-runners into a back-bencher without any analysis.

The Republican Party would do well to remember former governor and US Senator of Virginia George Allen. Raised in California (in the South Bay region of Los Angeles, no less), his commanding political resume positioned him as early as 2005 for a possible Presidential run, per Fox News  Sunday Anchor Tony Snow. In a straw poll match-up against other possible contenders, including Jeb Bush and US Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, Allen was looking like a frontrunner which would never aground for election 2008.

Of course, Republican President George W. Bush’ compassionate conservative would tarnish the fiscal rhetoric of the Republican Party platform (along with the unrelenting corruption of lobbyist Jack Abramoff and Mark Foley’s perverse follies with Congressional pages), and Allen’s star would fall during his almost near-certain reelection campaign for US Senate in 2006.

The rise of on site, up-front social media took Allen off-guard during bid against former Undersecretary of the Navy Jim Webb, a populist willing to play center to take back the Commonwealth for the Democratic Party. The erstwhile presidential contender’s off-color remark “Macaca” to a stalking campaign detractor damaged his campaign up to his one-point loss against Webb.

Refusing to apologize to the end, Allen’s presidential aspirations expired, along with the Republican Party’s Congressional majorities that year. Was there a chance for a comeback? Following his 2012 fight against former DNC Chairman Tim Kaine to regain his seat, he lost by five points. Allen the once-predetermined Presidential front-runner has no discernible political future.

Before claiming Christie as their Christ-figure, Republicans should reflect on Allen’s fate.

Of course, the Democratic Party has its own record of thwarted Presidential posturing. No better example than the same candidate whom Democratic leaders, in Washington and throughout the country, are lining up behind for 2016: Hillary Clinton.

After Bush’s win in 2004, liberals were hoping for Hillary. In the background, Illinois Senator-elect Barack Obama was ranked 99^th, with little history other than an anti-war speech in 2002 coupled with “present” votes in the state legislature.

Husband Bill Clinton defined the Democratic Party, even though his Presidency of small gains devolved into a farce in the last two years. Extremely popular, Bill was propping up Hillary for 2008, and Washington Post columnist Krauthammer feared another four years of Clinton in Washington.

To Hillary’s left in 2008, Obama steadily outpaced the “Establishment Favorite”, precisely because of her record in the US Senate, specifically her support for the war in Iraq. Too moderate to primary voters, and unserious to independents, the Clinton candidacy caved in 2008. Campaign operatives (including Ragin’ Cajun James Carville) could not fathom Hillary’s displacement by a left-leaning neophyte. Identity politics and obsessions with equality marred the delegate count into the early summer months of 2008, but Hillary’s “seventeen million cracks in the glass ceiling” could not break through the rising Obama-rama. Besides, media empress Oprah Winfrey shrewdly (and self-righteously) promoted the black candidate over female office-seeker, along with the widening youth vote looking to vote for someone like them.

Despite her determined assurances, Clinton was not the 2008 Democratic nominee, as time and chance and a better profile within the liberal ideology moved her aside. Now 2016 may be her break-out year, since she remains so popular (but what about Benghazi?). Recent reports have suggested that another candidate from her left may threaten her coronation, bank-foe US Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

There are no certainties for any claimant for their party’s nomination in 2016. Past as prologue should prevent any candidate from posturing as standard-bearer to become President.