A Miller Effect in the 33rd?

Republican Elan Carr, State Senator Ted Lieu, and Progressive Democratic-turned-Independent Marianne Williamson were the outstanding three candidates at the Brentwood forum yesterday, according to the LA Times and Breitbart News.

With eighteen, er. . . now seventeen candidates running for the 33rd Congressional District, the gaggle of politicians had to compete for their ninety seconds of fame.

The crowding on the stage represents the grimy fight awaiting the primary challengers, and the growing likelihood of this seat falling into another party's hands, even though this district has a strong Democratic streak based on its surface registration.

Gary Miller

Is a Miller effect possible in the CA 33rd?

Miller effect? What's that?

Go back to 2012.

Congressman Gary Miller (R-Rancho Cucamonga) was running for reelection in the newly-drawn 31st Congressional District. Not only a new district, but a majority Democratic-registration seat.

Miller decided to run anyway.

He did the right thing.

With four Democrats vying and another Republican running for the seat, guess who made it into the top two or the general election?

The two Republicans.

Gary Miller won his seat back without much fuss. The four Democrats contesting for the seat split their separate supporters so thinly, the two Republicans entered the Top Two.

Of course, after the election, the mainstream media jumped up and down about the 31st district, claiming that the Miller seat was the most vulnerable in the country.

Was it? We will never know, since Miller, who had served in Congress since 1999, who had run unopposed a few times for his seat, decided to retire instead of run again.

While Miller has chosen to move on, his exampled success may return, but to the 33rd Congressional district.

Elan Carr

With seventeen candidates running to replace the retreating Henry Waxman, including ten Democrats, a well-financed and popular liberal-progressive independent, along with a district prosecutor, a Libertarian, a Green, and another Independent (a movie producer), there will be so many candidates vying, crying out for every vote. The majority Democratic registration divided may allow the slightly more unified Republican vote to propel the GOP candidate into the top two.

In effect, can the Miller effect happen in the 33rd?

State senator Ted Lieu has already gotten the Democratic Party endorsement. He will likely draw more South Bay voters (and animal lovers). Former City Controller and Mayoral candidate Wendy Greuel will attract Westside Dems and the union vote (maybe the Jewish vote). With Dems David Kanuth and Kristie Holmes reaching out to anti-1% votes, and with spiritual guru and lecturer Marianne Williamson drawing out the disaffected liberal Dems and progressive independents, Elan Carr could sweep the GOP vote throughout the district, since he is the only Republican who is reaching out through press and TV commercials.

Two Republicans will not get into the top two, but a GOP and an independent just might. For all the Democrats posturing to win this "heavily Democratic" district, the personal hubris and special interest ambitions may end up hurting the Democrats in the long term.

This new top-two jungle primary reform is working out for Republicans and Independents after all!

Marianne Williamson

The LA Times and Breitbart News featured Carr, Lieu, and Williamson in the Brentwood debates. Carr's office has released stats suggesting that Greuel, Lieu, and Carr are running a dead heat. Still, some old-school operatives predict a Lieu-Greuel run-off, which would be cruel for the Dems to begin with, much like the Berman-Sherman take-down in 2012 in the new 30th ("You wana get into this?!")

Other political prognosticators are recognizing the growing likelihood of the Miller effect, with Dems so thinly spreading their support, that Carr will make it to the Top Two, but against whom? Likely Lieu, but if Williamson can summon the same support at the ballot box which greeted her appearance at the Brentwood forum, then expect a Carr-Williamson run-off.

33rd Congressional District

In such a possible outcome, a gang prosecutor vs. a spiritual author, who would have the better shot at commanding a win in November? I don't think it takes a psychic to tell you the outcome.