Tuesday, June 10, 2014

CD-31: Dems Say: "Bye Bye, GOP!" -- Chabot Says: "We'll See!"

Congressman Gary Miller won reelection in 2012 in spite of redistricting, which put him into a majority Dem district for the first time in his political career.

In spite of the registration disadvantage, Miller faced off in the Top Two against another Republican, and handily won reelection.

With 2014 looming, and the certainty of a heavy election challenge to retain his seat, Miller opted to retire rather than fight again.

The prospects of two Republicans duking it out flailed last week. Redlands Mayor Peter Aguilar (the Democrat) will challenge Paul Chabot (the Republican), and for all intensive purposes, a Democrat may pick up this seat.

Peter Aguilar
Still, prior electoral results suggest a latent strain of conservative values exists in the district (Prop 8 passed by 65%), even though the seat registration swings +4 Dem.

Paul Chabot
Then again, President Obama did well in this district oin 2008, as did Jerry Brown in 2010, and those stats cannot be ignored.

I contacted the Paul Chabot campaign, and surprisingly enough, I got in touch with Paul directly.

Right away, the leading primary vote-getter  is more excited about this race than dejected:

About the Democratic registration edged, he qualified: "These are conservative, family oriented Democrats."

About his plans for turning out the vote and winning in November, Chabot claimed:

We will continue what we did during the primary. We picked up four percent of the Dem vote, without reaching out to any Democrats. These are not far-left liberals -- these are hard-working, middle of the road blue dog Democrats. That really excites me because my background is military and law enforcement, and I patrol many cities throughout this district.

Enthusiastic and committed are necessary conditions for a strong campaign, but are they sufficient for a winning strategy?

I love this challenge.

He cited a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll for this data.

He then shared his background:

I am listed as a military officer: thirteen years in the Navy, military agency office, tour in Iraq Joint special ops, naval reserves. This is the kind of challenge that the Republican party needs, that we can connect with these Moderate Democrats.  We just launched "Democrats for Chabot" with Bishop Ron Allen, President International Faith-Based Coalition.

Democrat Bishop Ron Allen
and Paul Chabot Supporter
About the amount of money he spent in the primary, Chabot guessed about $125, 000, while the second-place Democratic challenger spent $1,000,000

We were outspent 11 to 1.

With all that money, Aguilar slipped into the Top Two. With such a heavy money machine, who knows what the Democrats will do in the general election. . .

He related other factors which strengthen his changes of carrying this Democratic-leaning district:

Voters are getting the option to elect a military veteran and a family man.

He cited that CD-31 contains one of the highest concentration of military veterans. Why? There used to be a number of military bases in this area, including a large VA hospital in Loma Linda. The housing is more affordable in the Inland Empire compared to Los Angeles.

Chabot discussed his work for President Clinton (Presidential Fellow, Office of National Drug Control Policy) and Bush (Senior Advisor" Local State Law Enforcement and Drug Control Programs), which he argued can demonstrate to voters his ability to work on non-political issues.

About his political views Chabot describes himself as a Christian Conservative, pro-life Republican, suppports the Second Amendment, favors reducing taxes, government regulations, and encouraging small businesses to grow. For years, he stressed improving service to veterans, even before the VA scandals broke this year. He calls Obamacare "a train wreck", citing the terrible treatment of US veterans in government hospitals, but acknowledges that aside from a new President in 2016, he supports getting rid of the unpopular law piece by piece, starting with the individual mandate.

About immigration reform, he firmly declared that he is not in favor of amnesty, but is looking for a humane way to deal with immigration issue. In addition to securing the border, he wants to invest in solving the core problems of security and corruption which drive immigrants to flee their home countries.

About Marriage: I believe in one man and one woman. I am a Christian. I have friends who are gay - I have no objections to the unions.

Republicans could look at this district the same way that they view Senate District 16, now 14, which cherry farmer Andy Vidak won with a stable margin in 2013, and wide sweep this year. However, prior results for statewide and federal offices indicate that this state was not just a swing, but a seat which will more easily fall in place with the Dems.

For all intensive purposes, if Republicans rely primarily on  GOP Get Out the Vote in this district, then they might as well say "See You Later" and focus on more winnable districts. If they can tap into Chabot's enthusiasm, drum up support from Democratic voters, who tend conservative on key issues, then the most contested district in the country may not be so easily swayed to the Democratic Party, after all.

Time and money will answer many of these questions in the months to come.


  1. Chabot won more than 26% of the total votes cast among seven candidates. Beating Aguilar is not hard because he is already beating himself as the candidate by using class warfare as a strategy he thinks is smart. Aguilar is permanently connected to the occupy movement which was a band of dirty anarchists who called for the elimination of corporations and for getting free stuff as they see fit. I am surprised that Aguilar is the best that the DCCC could come up with. He is an embarrassment to people with real jobs and the real middle class- not the fairy tale one made of Democratic lore. The real middle class of this district is going to reject Pete as they already suffering from the same policies he is promising.

    1. Correct. Aguilar has never had a real job. It has all been politics. Chabot has served in Iraq and patrolled as a deputy in addition to holding positions in the White House. He won this primary because he connected with the voters on a one on one basis. He is middle class himself. Aguilar is in the top two because the DCCC funded him a multi million dollar campaign with cute commercials and all.

    2. Paul Chabot for Congress!

  2. The question you have to ask yourself when voting: who will serve our community's interest versus special interest? Chabot is currently a naval intelligence officer and has served in Iraq. He did 18 years as a reserve deputy sheriff keeping us safe...no paycheck and all volunteer. He did this selflessly. I have every reason he will continue this in Congress. I will be voting for Paul Chabot in November. Thanks for the blog Mr Schaper...very fair and informative.

    1. Glad to oblige - fair and informative are crucial traits for us to assess the reality of the CD-31.


    Paul Chabot's claims to fame is his ties to what has often been described as the Drug War Economy. The Drug war is big business and most people that have been around it for decades understands that it s corrupt to the core. Paul Chabot is part of the marketing arm of that corruption team.

    If you have ever studied the rhetoric Paul espouses in the public forums, you realize he is lying and deliberately misrepresenting the governments own research to promote his very comfortable lifestyle and the Corporations / Industries that benefit from Drug Prohibition. This country spends approximately 200 billion dollars a year fighting this "War on Drugs". You would think that with that type of investment, 200 billion dollars a year, in Drug prohibition in America, we would have had some positive effects on drug use.

    Just the opposite occurred. We have the highest Drug Abuse rates in the industrial world, a prison capacity approaching 3 million, an education system nearing third world levels, a domestic manufacturing base that has been dismantled and one of the most corrupt countries on the planet.

    The evidence now shows that the Drug War is the most expensive, destructive, and least effective approach that we know of to address the use and abuse of illegal drugs. OUR DRUG ABUSE RATES WOULD BE LOWER WITHOUT INVESTING A DIME IN THIS CORRUPT WAR.

    The reason I keep bringing this information up is because Paul Shabot has access to the same research that I have and he keeps plugging the Drug War because it is a 200 billion dollar cash cow. He is misrepresenting the government's research and lying to the public for access to wealth and power. He is promoting a war against American citizens for profit. That is an excellent definition of treason.

    So when this conman starts spouting the virtues of a drug free America and his "I only want to protect the children, remember this. The prohibition model The one he is promoting) is the absolute worst model for accomplishing this goal and has proven that it created the highest drug abuse rates for any industrial nation. (He knows it)

    As far as protecting the children rhetoric, it is a lie as well. The money the drug war is putting in their pockets was put into classrooms, universities, Job training and domestic industries 40 years ago. Your children are going to schools that have become the laughing stock of the industrial world because you were lied to. Lied to by people just like Paul Chabot that conned you into investing in the Drug War instead of prosperity for your children.

    Here is a message for Paul Chabot. When the jails you built to enslave us, become your new home, the world will be a better place for us all.

  4. Sorry, the above post is just wrong. First of all if Paul Chabot is involved in the War Against Drugs for the money it will bring him that is not working. Paul is not rich and is a good middle class family man that cares about his family and community very much. If you take the time to talk to him about his opposition to drug use you will find he experienced the bad things it can do to you when he was quite young and luckily he found his way out. He really wants to protect others from all of the bad drugs can do to you. His concern for our young people is genuine. You may not always agree with him but just listen to him and you will see that he wears his feelings on drug abuse on his sleeve. And his focus in not to incarcerate young people for using drugs but to go after those who try to make money off of their misery. If you care about your family and your community then Paul Chabot is the man you want in Congress representing you.

    The people of the Inland Empire want someone like Paul Chabot to represent them. He is a man of the people who cares about the direction we are going in and will work to make things better for all of us.

  5. "For all intensive purposes"...HAHAHAHA!!!!! You moron: "all intents and purposes". Take a writing class, you babbling idiot.

  6. Paul Chabot will make a great congressman and the people in the 31st district would be wise to elect him to represent them.

  7. I hope Aguilar uses Mr. Lindberg's rambling piece above as one of the millions of unread mailers I received from his campaign. That should swing votes toward Chabot!

  8. "For all intensive purposes"....not once but TWICE! Pointless AND barely literate!

  9. Anonymous, you are pointless and barely literate? Don't write such things about yourself. Have some self-respect.

    1. Don't try to toy with wit, Arthur; you aren't at all equipped.

    2. You forget to mention "Clean Up on Aisle Five!" LOL

    3. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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