Lessons From The California 2026 Primary

 

In a previous article, I analyzed the big winners and losers of the California primary. I didn’t mention my preferred candidate, Sheriff Chad Bianco, because to me he’s still a winner, even if the rest of the state (and Trump) rejected him.

California needed saving, and I believed that the sheriff was just the man to get the job done.

I thought Trump’s endorsement wouldn’t matter. 

I went through 5 minutes of grief after I saw Bianco getting a distant fourth place in the gubernatorial race. I went through the stages of grief fairly quickly, arriving at the place of acceptance. When I could look at the assumptions I operated under and see where I went wrong, it gave me hope - and I hope it gives hope to others - that there is a way to turn things around in California. But just not right now, and not as fast as I would like.

My calculations were way off for this race. I had such hopes. Not only did Bianco lose, but Republicans running in my state assembly and state senate districts got locked out of the general election, too!

Reality TV actor Spencer Pratt, as an outspoken common-sense independent candidate for mayor, lost his chance to challenge Karen Bass for Mayor of Los Angeles in November.

Where did I go wrong? What did I learn?

1. I thought that Californians really had suffered enough, and they were ready to go in a new direction. Look at all the homes that went up in flames in Pacific Palisades! Across the states, homes have gone up in flames due to poor forestry and water practices from the Democratic-run government. The election results indicate that Californians have not suffered enough. They haven't learned that voting Democrat means more destruction. 
2. I thought the DEI dominance of the Democratic Party would frustrate their candidates and allow two Republicans into the Top Two for governor and other races. Every identity and interest group in the state of California gravitates towards their preferred candidate. Former state controller Betty Yee would get the Asian vote. The California state superintendent of schools, Tony Thurmond, would get the black vote. Former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villagosa and former Congressmember Xavier Becerra would compete for the Hispanics. Tom Steyer, with billions to burn, played Bernie Bro, embracing the most aggressive left-wing policies. Katie “Karen” Porter would get the single white female vote. However, Democrats, even though they are determined to articulate intersectionality as much as possible (no straight white males, please!), the Democrats’ drive for power remained  number one, and they figured out how to winnow the field (force out Swalwell, sideline Mahan), and ensure at least one Dem made it through to the Top Two.
3. I assumed that the hardcore progressive Berniecrats and Democratic Socialists of America would harm the Democrats with their own infighting and help Republicans. Tom Steyer blanketed the state with mailers, including high-propensity Republican voters like me. California State legislators and statewide officials split behind Steyer or the more Establishment Democrat (Porter, Becerra, Swalwell). Ultimately, Big Business and Big Labor still call the shots in California Democratic politics. Their paid politicians will pay lip service to progressive platforms, like advancing single-payer health care, enacting a ban on gas-powered everything, and eviscerating the Second Amendment. In the end, however, just like in prior elections, California Democratic power brokers muted support for the most progressive policy positions and sidelined the Berniecrats. The Democratic Party of California is performative, not progressive, and they promoted Becerra to advance into the general election. 
4. The California Republican Party faces some serious soul-searching. They face an electorate that is two to one liberal against them. The Democratic dominance is not just concentrated in the big cities, but is spreading to the suburbs. Orange County, California, was a bastion of conservatism from FDR. While the state went blue in Presidential elections from 1992 onward, Orange County stayed red. Those days are gone now. For so long, I hoped that Republicans in California could change their brand, reshape their outreach, and augment a more common-sense policy platform to appeal to disaffected Democrats and independents. Sadly, Trump Derangement Syndrome has proven too malign for liberal voters to overcome. Democrats will not vote for more reasonable people unless the candidates are registered independents, like the current Los Angeles County District Attorney, or are Democrats unafraid to buck their party and the system, like Los Angeles City Councilwoman Tracy Park.
5. Trump is the boss, even when I don’t like his endorsements or choices. The boss may make mistakes, but the boss still makes the final call. The Republican Party is now Trump's party, even in California. He has been good for the national party, since he has adopted working-class populism to win the Rust Belt. That political coalition does not resonate in blue coastal states like California. Trump expanded the electoral map and the demographics of the GOP. Those gains have not helped California. The Golden State has become an amalgam of aggressive public sector unions, festering hot beds of indoctrination in universities and public schools, plus an overwhelming population of illegals and recent arrivals committed to getting rich off the government. With interests like those, sound constitutional conservative policy cannot break through. I don't blame Trump; I blame the liberal majority in California. And this disappointing reality reverts back to my first lesson: California voters want their abject liberalism, even if those policies cause nothing but suffering. 

 

Trump will move on. Perhaps the California Republican Party can rebuild and have a future? Will there be any hope of the Republican Party brand resurgence when Trump retires? A successor can build on Trump's current policy successes, learn from his messes, restore GOP suburban outreach, and bring in disaffected upper-middle-class moms and dads. Republicans in California have to find a way to bridge that gap, including tech elites and factory workers. There are signs that such a shift can happen.

Hispanic voters, especially in California, are moving to the right, but there is a need for real economic freedom and change. The decline of public schools and the rise of homeschooling suggest that the younger generation will be more independent and certainly more open to constitutional conservative thinking. With those kinds of changes, they will open up to the Republican Party.

If we want constitutional rule restored for certain in California, it will take a religious revival, which can happen. Argentina was a socialist basket case for 100 years. Only as Christian revival surged throughout the country, a new generation of voters began to reject the bland, played-out legacy of socialism. Then, outspoken charismatic libertarian economist Javier Milei announced his bid for president, with a new party, and then took the Argentine political class by storm as their new President. 

Californians can wake up, and they can vote themselves out of political bondage. Of course, not just a change of minds in younger voters, but the welcome intervention of election integrity measures from the federal government will go a long way to ensuring a viable political system in California where the constitutional rights and the everyday needs of Californians can be respected and relieved.