Identity, Intuition, Initiative

So, what wins elections?

Is it the money?

Hardly -- Bloomfield outspent Waxman four to one, and he still lost. The voter split throughout the 33rd Congressional District, the 66th Assembly District in the South Bay, and the 40th Congressional District, which stretches from Long Beach to Orange County is diverse. Distinct constituencies ended up fostering little difference in the final vote count. Each Democrat won the seat by six points.

I have charged before that the lackluster voter turnout killed Republicans. It was Romney's fault all the way.

The demographics alone cannot kill a Republican's chances when he or she is running in a heavily Democratic district. Scott Brown in Massachusetts carried the Senate seat by five points, even though the Republican registration is 11%, and three-to-one Democratic.

Andy Vidak just one a state senate seat in the Central Valley, two-to-one Democratic.

How did he do it?

I advance the following ideas to explain why.

1. Identity. The voters in his district knew the cherry farmer, and they knew him very well. He was a well-recognized name in the Valley. His family lived and worked in the region for decades. People knew him, and they could relate to him. With identity, one can also factor in community, as a candidate who has ties with helping other people will give the impression more solidly that he wants to help others. More than a non-politcian, he was a hard-working, salt-of-the-earth farmer who wanted his fellow farmers to get the best out of their representation in Sacramento.

2. Intuition. Vidak knew the problems facing the Valley farmers, and he responded to them. He did not waste his time talking about taxes and spending. He connected the generic issues to their impact on his neighbors, and the fact that he was "the farmer down the road" (literal meaning of "neighbor) enabled him ot understand their plight without having to ask, or even stumble in his search to understand them. Focusing on local issues will give Republicans an edge every time, since part of the party platform focuses on individual liberty and local control. Too often, an ideologically conservative mantra simply won't cut it. Why cut taxes and spending in general? How does that help me? Will the cuts proposed by the candidate hurt my interests, too? Vidak talked about water, farming, and the billion dollar bullet train boondoggle. Everyone was listening.

3. Initiative. Vidak wanted to win, and the statewide party got the word out. Residents in the South Bay (Los Angeles) helped out with this race. How did they learn about opportunities to step in? The recently elected CA GOP Chairman Jim Brutle reached out to voters in the Los Angeles area.

One of his most disturbing pronouncements motivated attendees to step up:

"Governor Jerry Brown is the only conservative voice in Sacramento with any power."

The Republican Party cannot expect to get very far depending on "Governor Moonbeam" to solve the Golden State's problems. For the first time in decades, Republicans are on the margins looking in, and with Democrats pressured by lobbyists and unions and special interests of all kinds, the hope of reaching across the aisle and pulling more "right-thinking" Dems to think and vote for themselves is highly unlikely.

Let's consider the three I's -- identity, intuition, and initiative -- compared to Presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Identity -- Mitt Romney did not even know who Mitt Romney was. His positions flipped and flopped, even while he was campaigning for higher office. His "47%" remark distanced him considerably, not just from voters, but even from himself. How this man could disdain so many in this country before on group of likely voters, then share stories about restoring companies, and other bloggers' sharing about his acts of charity, created nothing but confusion,.

Intuition -- People just did not like this guy, and he did not really know them, nor did he take the time to know them. He was still holding offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands. For a man who had been running for President for seven years, such lapses of perception were unforgivable. For many Republican primary voters, he was not the first or even the second choice. A blue-blood moderate who pretended to be a red-hot conservative elicited laughter, not praise (including from faux-conservative New York Times columnist David Brooks). Romney did not understand the bread-and-butter issues facing American voters (he probably could not have told anyone the current price of milk, either). He did not even bother to present himself as someone who had struggled in hard times (living on a stipend per month as a Mormon Missionary in France does not count).

Initiative -- This part really hurt Romney. He was not a fighter. How could he be? He was trying to run out the clock on a bad President with a bad economy and a bad spate of laws which a majority of Americans did not like. His own sons shared after Romney's election loss that he really did not want to run, but he felt compelled to do so. He was stiff and awkward in interviews, and aside from his first debate with President Obama, Romney was accommodating and appreciative (Huey in the 66th never went really negative. As for Gary DeLong, his trust in his business acumen and city council experience did not measure up to Lowethal's connection.)

Republican campaign managers and consultants (especially in California) still think in terms of money, persuasion, advertising. These metrics certainly help during a primary fight, but when facing higher odds to take down experienced candidates, the candidate who wins has to know who he is. know what the voters need, and have the know-how, go-how to get it done.

Vidak had it, and he won. Romney didn't, and he lost. The California GOP needs to step up the three I's in order to win key seats and take back Sacramento, and the Golden State, for all Californians.