Well, this is interesting news, indeed. The Democratic Party is not as strong as they think they are.
Let's remember that the Democratic presidential nominee did not win the election. The voter fraud was rife and documented. President Trump won the election, and he brought up the ticket in a number of states. In fact, there are now more GOP trifectas across the fifty states, and the key swing states still have GOP majorities, as those legislative majorities will draw the Congressional representative districts for election 2022.
Republican lawmakers will ensure that Republican Congressional representatives keep their seats and gain more seats, especially as blue states continue to lose representation as they lose population to other states.
And as for that voting coalition ... What do the Democrats have working for them, really?
How Stable Is the Democratic Coalition?
The party may control the elected branches in Washington.
But it may be facing some slippage in support from minority communities.
By Eric Kaufmann
Democrats are riding high in Washington, with control of the
White House and Congress. They got there with a broad coalition that included
suburban white and minority voters — I estimate, based on exit poll data, that
nearly half of the Democrats’ roughly 81 million votes came from the latter
group. For Republicans, it was just 18 percent.
If the Democrats are to avoid losing Congress in 2022 or the
presidency in 2024, they will need to continue to carry an overwhelming number
of minority voters. Yet there are signs that the party’s dominant grip on this
growing demographic is beginning to slip.
Minority voters are no longer in the minority, so to speak. Many of them see themselves as Americans, not with ethnic hyphens attached to their identities.
The 2020 presidential election results illustrate a clear
edge for Democrats among nonwhite voters. Exit poll data show that just 32
percent of Hispanics and Latinos, 34 percent of Asian-Americans and 12 percent
of Black respondents voted for former President Donald Trump. Data from AP VoteCast Survey put those numbers at 35
percent for Hispanics and Latinos, 28 percent for Asian-Americans and 8 percent
for African-Americans.
For Democrats, the problem with those figures is that they
represent a step back from the strong results of 2012. Since then, minority
support for Republicans has inched up. Without minority votes, Mr. Trump would
not have won in 2016 or come as close as he did in 2020.
Democrats see a simple story: Barack Obama galvanized
minorities to vote Democratic. His departure from the ballot means things have
simply returned to normal.
But what if something more enduring is going on — and what
is considered “normal” has shifted? Namely, Democrats may be seeing a slippage
in support from some minority communities. And in the case of Hispanics in
particular, some of that movement is a result of a form of identity politics,
as they more and more see themselves as identifying with the white majority.
And since nearly six in 10 whites voted Republican in 2020, it should follow
that as minorities move toward what we might think of as a mainstream white
Americanism, some will become more Republican.
Hispanic voters in California favor recalling Governor Newsom. They also do not support abortion, homosexuality, or other left-wing social engineering, which has become endemic in the Democratic Party.
The trajectory of earlier generations of white Catholics in America provides a good example of this sort of political movement. From the country’s founding, the United States was largely Protestant — in the late 19th century, I estimate it was around 80 percent. The political historian Paul Kleppner calculated that around 70 percent of white Catholics (largely descended from post-1840 Irish and German immigrants) voted Democratic from 1853 to 1892, and roughly the same percentage (68 percent) of Northern white Catholics identified as Democrats in 1952-60, as the political scientist Alan Abramowitz, using American National Election Studies data, showed.
The 1960 election of John F. Kennedy as the first Catholic
president was the Obama moment of his era. Yet this Catholic triumph marked the
beginning of the end of the Catholic-Democratic love affair. In 1960, using
that same National Election Studies data, 73 percent of white Catholics
identified as Democrats, a high-water mark. In the years that followed, they
began at first a slow shift toward the Republican side and then, after the
election of Ronald Reagan in 1980, a steadier migration. By 2016, just 38
percent of white Catholics identified as Democratic, and half called themselves
Republican (that movement has continued into 2020).
According to my calculations, the data also reveals that the
share of nonwhite voters identifying as Democratic reached 75 percent in 2008,
when Mr. Obama was elected. In 2019, the most recent year of this data, just 51
percent of nonwhites identified as Democratic.
The numbers are going down. More "minority" voters are identifying clearly and simply as "American" voters. The demographics are changing, but that does not mean that the country is lost.
The 2018 and 2019 numbers come from a smaller sample than
the National Election Survey election-year data, but even if we dismiss 2019 as
a blip, it is noteworthy that the Democratic share has fallen every survey
since 2008. It is becoming more difficult to write this off as simply a return
to the pre-Obama status quo.
Many minorities who no longer identify as Democrats have
become independents rather than Republicans — much like their white Catholic
predecessors initially did — but this means their loyalties are increasingly up
for grabs on Election Day.
Yes, indeed. Most blacks do not want the police defunded, but rather defended in their neighborhoods. Let's not forget that Joe Biden did not win the election. It was stolen outright, and the numerous affidavits, videos, and other statistical models all confirm these dark realities.
In order to understand what may be occurring, it is useful
to examine which kind of minority voter leans Republican. For Hispanics and
Asian-Americans, this raises the question of assimilation. If these newer
groups follow the path laid by earlier generations of Italians and Jews, they
will come to identify themselves more and more as white rather than as
minorities. The political scientists Álvaro Corral and David Leal show that
Latinos whose family had been in America for three generations were more likely
to vote for Mr. Trump in 2016. My analysis of Pew survey data from 2018 reveals
that there is a big gap between the immigrant Hispanic generation and the third
generation (representing a child of a U.S.-born Hispanic). Almost 80 percent of
the immigrant Hispanic generation voted Democratic, whereas the third
generation figure was about 60 percent.
Mr. Trump’s more defensive, cultural brand of nationalism —
and occasionally racist comments — were once thought to be a deal-breaker for
minority voters. However, these messages can resonate with minorities. In
addition, according to my analysis, Hispanics who are American-born and native
English speakers are more likely to believe others see them as white. Hispanics
and Asians who say their American identity is “extremely important” to them
also feel warmer toward white Americans.
Cultural Conservatism is bouncing back.
Hispanics who predominantly speak English are more secure
about their position in American society. When asked in 2018 whether Mr.
Trump’s election gave them “serious concerns” about their place in America or
whether they were confident they belonged, these Hispanics were 22 points more
confident than those who predominantly speak Spanish.
For African-Americans, data from a Qualtrics survey I
conducted shows that voters with the weakest attachment to their Black identity
had a higher propensity to vote for Mr. Trump, and these voters were more
likely to live in ZIP codes with a smaller Black population. While just 16
percent of African-Americans in our sample said their Black identity was not
especially important to them, the political scientist Tasha Philpot writes that
attendance at a Black church is often linked to a stronger Black identity, and
thus to higher Democratic identification. And if Black voters moved away from
what Ismail White, a political scientist at Duke, calls “social networks within
the Black community,” that might limit the power of the community to enforce a
Democratic-voting norm.
Joe Biden’s coalition, which is less dependent on minority votes, could insulate the Democrats from the political risks of any minority movement away from the left. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s better-than-expected performance in 2020 suggests a Republican coalition of secure minorities and anxious whites may be a match for the “emerging Democratic majority” of anxious minorities and secure whites.
