Center for Arizona Policy Action, Aftermath of Election 2022

 

Pity Party Over   More than a week after the election and there is no question that the results brought significant disappointments to our pro-life, pro-family community. It’s not an easy time and it’s a rough road ahead. I usually give myself a day to bemoan a political loss, then it is time to look ahead. The pity party is over.   Let me assure you that CAP and CAP Action will march forward determined to stand for our values. We’ll thoroughly analyze what happened and chart a path ahead. We’ll put up a vigorous defense against any anti-life and anti-family proposals by a presumed Governor-elect Katie Hobbs.   We’ll work with our slim majority in the state Legislature to do right by Arizona families. We covet your prayers and support.   The election is not our demise nor our salvation. We do not despair because we will see the goodness of the Lord in the land of the living. As always, we will trust in our Lord.   Overview - General Election Results:   The Good Arizona Congressional delegation flipped from four Republicans and five Democrats to six Republicans and three Democrats. The two new Republicans helped flip the U.S. House to the bare Republican majority. Our delegation now will have a strong conservative majority. Eli Crane, a former Navy Seal, defeated incumbent Tom O’Halleran. Juan Ciscomani defeated former state senator Kirsten Engel. Arizona Statewide saw Kimberly Yee retained as Arizona State Treasurer. Republicans Kevin Thompson and Nick Myers won their races for Corporation Commission. Arizona Senate and House retained a bare pro-life, conservative majority. The Senate again will have 16 Republicans to 14 Democrats. The House again will have 31 Republicans to 29 Democrats. However, both chambers have more solidly conservative members than the last two years. They will be needed to counter a presumed Governor-elect Hobbs.  Arizona School Boards in several districts elected parent activists who will make a difference. CAP Action-endorsed candidates won seats in six school districts, including one in Paradise Valley, one in Peoria, and two in Scottsdale. Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell defeated radical leftist Julie Gunnigle.   The Bad S. Senate Sen. Mark Kelly defeated Blake Masters. Arizona Statewide Offices - For the next four years Katie Hobbs apparently will be Arizona Governor and Adrian Fontes will be Secretary of State. Hobbs has vowed to do all she can to allow abortion up until birth. Fontes has not been supportive of measures to ensure election integrity. State Senate/State House bare majority. Redistricting of state legislative districts did not seem to produce a stronger conservative majority. Our pro-life champion Sen. Nancy Barto lost a very close race to Sen. Christine Marsh. Nancy, a woman of faith, courage, and integrity, left everything on the field. Her district is more of a swing district following redistricting. Other swing districts elected only one Republican to the House rather than two.   Still Counting - As of Thursday afternoon, both races for Attorney General and Superintendent of Public Instruction appear headed to a recount. On Thursday afternoon, for Attorney General, Democrat Kris Mayes led Republican Abe Hamadeh by a few hundred votes. For Superintendent, Republican Tom Horne has a .4% lead over Democrat Kathy Hoffman. Should those margins hold, both will be in for a recount. While the votes aren’t final in the governor’s race, the margin is slightly outside the margin required for a recount.   Ballot Propositions had mixed results. Arizonans voted in favor of establishing a Lt. Governor office, requiring a 60% vote for any ballot measure that increases taxes, and granting in-state tuition to any undocumented individual who has lived in the state for two years. The measure to implement voter identification appears to have lost by about 20,000 votes. Arizonans did vote to require groups like CAP Action to disclose donors in certain types of campaigns but that one will be subject to several court challenges on constitutional grounds.   CAP Action Record CAP Action Endorsed Candidates Overall, 77% of CAP Action endorsed candidates won their races (will be 79% should Abe Hamadeh win the Attorney General’s race). Won Six of eight federal races Four of seven statewide 16 of 18 state senate 31 of 39 state house Maricopa County Attorney Seven of twelve school districts   General thoughts   Several factors contributed to Arizona not seeing a red wave. At times, elections represent a perfect storm, and you can pick which factor or factors you think made a difference. While it will take a while to unpack and verify the reasons for these results, here’s what I see at this point in time: Redistricting helped in the congressional races but may not have helped in state legislative races. Republicans lost in the swing state legislative districts. Changing demographics as our state’s growth may be affecting voting. Lower Republican voter turnout in more conservative counties. Democrat money and strategy. Trump effect The Republican primary resulted in wins for the more conservative and Trump-endorsed candidates. That may have been off-putting to Independents and some Republicans. Even voters who support President Trump’s policies are weary of him primarily because of his verbal attacks and behavior. Several candidates, including State Treasurer Kimberly Yee and Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell, were not identified closely with President Trump and won their races handily. Party dynamics on the Republican side Lack of permissible coordinated efforts between state party and candidates. Lack of party unity. Lack of field staff to counter the Democrat’s efforts.   Finally, a word on whether abortion made a difference: I’m not ready to buy that argument. It’s one being shouted loudly by the pro-abortion crowd and others who wish the life issue would go away.   That’s not going to happen on our watch.   Our polling showed more voters were horrified by the Left’s support for abortion up until birth than they were by our support for life from its very beginning. Polls consistently showed and I continue to believe voters were more concerned about other factors. Pro-life candidates did not lose their races because of their pro-life positions.   ICYMI Read or listen here about the profoundly deceptive “Respect for Marriage Act” that federal lawmakers are poised to pass. Read here about the national call for a pro-life GOP presidential candidate in 2024. Read here how proclaiming “God created Adam and Eve” got one prominent sports figure a jail sentence in Greece. Read here about an important religious freedom case being heard at the U.S. Supreme Court next month.