Election 2014 displayed
one of the most incredible switches of U.S. Senate control in recent memory.
The Republicans did not
just take back the Upper Chamber. They wiped the floor with the Democrats and
bested some of their pettiest political tricks, including three different
Democratic candidates in Montana, plus three-way races in other states.
Nothing can top Election
1980, which produced a Republican majority with 12 US Senate wins.
Election 2014 produced
nine seats, but could have been eleven if not for the intense infighting in
Republican primaries.
So, will Election 2016
turn into an epic landslide of the Democrats and help them win back the upper
chamber?
After Election 2014, I believed that the Republicans would have no trouble holding their
majority. They have strong incumbents, many who have provide superior constituent
services to their states. U.S. Senator Pat Toomey has worked across the aisle
on select issues so that he does not alienate his base, but can reach out to
Independents and even some Democrats.
I knew that the battleground
was going to be wider for Democratic gains, and harder for Republican holds.
After nearly two year of
campaigning, polling, and the unexpected, I have to revise my predictions.
Ron Johnson |
For example, I was
certain that U.S. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin would not have a hard time getting
re-elected. And yet poll after poll has documented a surprising yet consistent
lead for Democratic challenger Russ Feingold, the incumbent whom Johnson
knocked out in 2010. It has narrowed recently, but the NRSC has not invested major
funding for ads … yet. This setback is very disappointing. Johnson is a vocal
and effective legislator. He has fought for strong our country’s best interests
in national security. He has focused on ending
illegal immigration. Unlike other Republicans, this Tea Party candidate has not
run away from his values. Recent polling has delivered good news, indicating a
tighter race, but the numbers still look bad for Johnson.
Mark Kirk |
Just South of Johnson,
fellow Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois is in a world of hurt.
He is the #1 Target on
the Senate map, even though he has raised considerable amount of money. The
state is just too blue. Kirk won in 2010, which was not just an off-year, but
witnessed a wave of voter discontent which swept Kirk into office. He was
running against one corrupt challenger, and replacing a corrupt appointment
which has opted not to even run for re-election. This year, Kirk is running
against another "decorated" wounded veteran. Despite allegations of
malfeasance and incompetence dogging Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, she is
poised to win.
Other seats which were
not supposed to be in play, but now have become competitive, including Indiana.
Evan Bayh had retired in 2010, smelling the blood in the water for Democrats. Now
he's back, and hoping for a larger Democratic turnout which will prop him back
into office. So many unhappy, unnerving retreads. Could Indiana end up with two
Democratic Senators in 2016?!
Now the good news.
Opportunities have
emerged for Republicans to keep the majority.
Robert Portman of Ohio
is running a smart campaign. He has raised the most money of all his fellow
colleagues running. Black activist groups have supported the senator, along
with labor unions, which means more campaign dollars.
His Democratic challenger,
Ted Strickland, has been struggling to fundraise and to raise his positives
with Ohio voters, who don't want him back in elected office. Major headlines
from the liberal press reported that the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee
is pulling their investments out of the state. Uh Oh!
In Florida, Marco Rubio
earned enough press to remake himself into a household name in the swing-state
Sunshine State. After much backroom prodding, Rubio decided to run for
re-election, though he had decided to retire following his bid for President.
Even though He lost
Florida Presidential primary by huge margins, but he blew away his primary
competition to hold onto his Senate seat. He now consistently polls at least
five points ahead of his Democratic challenger. This seat is no longer in
precarious hands. Rubio will return as a U.S. Senator, but let us hope that he
will stop pushing immigration "reform" and fight for conservative
causes with renewed gusto.
There is one more truly swing
state that is swinging back to Republicans: Pennsylvania.
Senator Pat Toomey was
riding high earlier this year, especially because of Democratic infighting that
was chipping away at their chances in for winning the seat. Toomey ran
against a weakened challenger in 2010, who had toppled turncoat incumbent RINO-Democrat
Arlen Specter. Back then, Toomey eked out a 51% victory.
Will he have a wider win
in 2016? Incredible constituent contacts, well-informed efforts and newsletters,
plus a unique mixture of confirmed conservatism with purple pragmatism may see
him through--or not, as his challenger Katie McGinty shows her besting
incumbent Toomey, within the margin of error.
Iowa’s Chuck Grassley is
doing very well, standing firm against Obama’s Supreme Court nominee while
fighting hard against illegal immigration. His stock has improved in connection
with Donald Trump, too. Despite quivering pollsters and salivating liberal
media pundits, Missouri’s Roy Blunt, an accomplished politician with a long
resume, will show the Democrats he can carry the “Show Me State”. New
Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte has a harder fight on her hands. Patent reform
notwithstanding, her support for immigration “reform” could dampen voters’
spirits. If Trump’s standing improves, then Ayotte’s bedrock of support will
strengthen her chances in the Granite State.
Republicans could pick
up a seat from the Democrats, too. Now that the humiliated and greatly weakened
Democratic leader “Dirty” Harry Reid no longer feels so lucky, Republican
Congressman Joe Heck looks primed to win.
As for Colorado, Darryl
Glen shocked triumphed in a crowded primary. With little support in the general,
he holds little chance of flipping the seat from Michael Bennett, although he
certainly deserves to lose.
The stats are looking
better for Senate Republicans.
Election 2016
Prediction: Republicans hold the US Senate 52-48.
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