He is dead man walking. - Tim Malloy, assistant director of Quinnipiac polls.
Democratic governors are struggling for reelection in 2014, along with some
Republicans.
While Republicans enacted commanding reforms, Democrats pushed their
progressive agendas further.
As Texas Governor Rick Perry had commented, states are the laboratory for
democracy, and they are the testing ground for policy reforms (or status quo
policies)
Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy signed off on gun registration, and
Connecticut residents refused to comply. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo
established similar laws, and gun owners burned the forms in an act of
civil disobedience. Not only has Cuomo faced a leftist primary challenge, the
full-throttle progressive New York City mayor Bill de Blasio is giving Big
Government policies a bad name, precisely because he is fulfilling the
leftist wish-list of college professors and Marxist agitators.
Of all the current contests though, there is one Republican Governor
who is not just facing an uphill battle, but has been deemed "dead
man walking" .
Personal and sensational scandals have hurt Corbett's image.
The Penn State/Sandusky child molestation scandal not only scarred the
college, and college football, but also former Attorney General
Tom Corbett for his handling of the case. Despite
reports which exonerated the governor from political maneuvering in the
case, reports concluded that he did not investigate the frequent claims of sex
abuse effectively.
A more recent scandal forced Corbett to defend his record as Attorney
General again. Current and former staffers in the Pennsylvania AG's offices distributed
emails with pornographic images. Even judges may be connected with these
scandals. Corbett has called for three people connected with the salacious
materials to step down, yet one aide has refused to resign, claiming that he is
wrongly implicated.
Now, these are sensational, headline grabbing issues, but they focus on his
prior administration as attorney general. For an incumbent governor to poll
twenty points behind his challenger, and for more than six months, there is
much more to why Corbett has become a dead man walking.
Corbett rode the 2010 Tea Party wave, and received a GOP majority
legislature to boot. He had the same supposedly like-minded colleagues in
the Harrisburg statehouse after the 2012 elections, even though Republicans
across the country did not fare as well. Creative gerrymandering will ensure
safe seats for Republicans for years to come.
Have these safe seats made Republicans soft on hard-core conservative
policies? Did they kill Corbett's chances of reelection this year?
Corbett did cut spending
substantially. . .educational funding, that is, and Pennsylvanians are upset
about it. Isaiah Thompson fact-checked and commented on Corbett's education
funding:
Those figures alone suggest that
Corbett at the most flat-lined education funding; but costs rise due to
inflation and and flat-lined spending over four years is in fact a
decrease in spending over cost.
and then
A study by the Education Law Center, meanwhile, found the most drastic examples
of this by comparing the cost cuts to these programs on a per-pupil basis.
Where some districts saw per-classroom cuts of less than $2,500, others saw
tens of thousands of dollars cut on a per-classroom basis. Philadelphia was
among those districts.
A new analysis by the Public Interest Law Center of Philadelphia
shows that lower income students and minority races are affected in
significantly greater amounts compared to other students by the Corbett
Administration cuts. In 2011 Governor Tom Corbett cut $1 billion in public
school funding. As a result of these cuts 70 percent of school districts
have increased class sizes, 44 percent slashed extracurricular activities and
35 percent eliminated tutoring programs.
So, the growing perception suggests
that Corbett cut inner-city and minority schools more than other
districts. Ouch!
Personal outrage erupted at a
college commencement when Corbett was the guest speaker. In addition to personal anecdotes from
attending graduates who turned their chairs around in protest, the report
repeated the staggering cuts Corbett enacted:
In his first year in office, Governor Corbett sought a 50% decrease in
education funding, followed by a request for a 30% reduction the next year.
Meanwhile, tuition has gone up for Millersville students in every year of the
governor’s term.
Perception is crucial to a candidate. Granted, schools do not need more
money, but better administration. Cuts alone, however, do not demonstrate any
caring from leadership. California Governor Jerry Brown was smart enough to
increase funding to poor and minority school districts, even though his new
funding formula hurt middle and upper class communities. Should Corbett have
done the same thing? Of course not. School choice, voucher programs, or
scholarships would have impacted the hearts and minds of voters. Even
Presidential candidate Mitt Romney reached out to poor and inner-city
communities by visiting charter schools. What did Corbett do? Not enough.
Proposals which are pro-student and pro-fiscal restraint (like Michigan Gov.
Synder's right-to-work reforms) win over voters and policy wonks.
Stated simply, Corbett's education cuts are cutting off his reelection
chances.
How else has Corbett failed to earn a second term in the Keystone
state?
The state capital, Harrisburg, declared bankruptcy. Didn’t hear about it?
Probably because Detroit has gotten all the negative press, the largest
municipal bankruptcy in American History. Plus the fact that Detroit’s
illustrious (and nefarious) history commends more attention from the immediate
press and a readership obsessed with immediacy.
Still, nothing invites reproach for a governor worse than the state capital
going bankrupt.
Why? Debt
from the city’s replacement and improvement of its trash-to-energy incinerator
has burned municipal coffers.
Another
article compared Detroit and Harrisburg:
Detroit's troubles have been decades
in the making and the city is chronically distressed as a result of population
loss and loss of industry, thus reducing the tax base. Harrisburg's problems
can be pinned primarily on a bad deal, although there are some structural
problems that will have to be addressed in order for the city to truly be
viable.
Detroit is shouldering a multi-billion dollar debt, while Harrisburg is
struggling under three hundred million plus. Both cities are struggling with
pension liabilities and union dominance, too.
That pension problem has plagued Corbett’s political chances, too. Pension
reforms did not yield the predicted savings.
Despite
a friendly legislature, Corbett failed to privatize state-owned liquor
stores, and failed to enact paycheck protection, as Governor Walker had done in
2011. According to a National Review piece dissecting the Corbett’s Dead on
Arrival reelection, unions have bought both sides of the aisle in Harrisburg.
Instead of bold reforms, Corbett went along to get along.
Corbett even raised taxes! He
discussed raising revenues off of oil exploration:
Yesterday
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett proposed lifting the cap on the
state’s oil company franchise tax, the tax applied to gasoline sold at the wholesale level,
boasting that it will siphon an additional $5 billion from the private economy
over the next five years.
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